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Four MLB System picks for May 21st, 2021.
I had someone request the 2021 record and I totaled it up. For the season, we are 48-51 for -8.38 units. However, that is a bit misleading. I used a partial version of the system early in the year and had an awful start at 1-11. Take away those first few days and we are 47-41 on the season for +0.67 units. I started using more of the full system around April 19th and since then we are 34-31, +.08.
The System is definitely on the right path. More data equals more accurate predictions. For the month of May we have a 24-18 record for +4.63 units.
Let’s keep that going with today’s picks.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 2.4 | 102 | 113 | 134 | 85 | 3 | 68 | 3 |
| NYY | 122 | 100 | 128 | 99 | 13 | 92 | 19 | |
| Jordan Montgomery | 3.97 | 108 | 95 | 94 | 78 | 1 | 93 | 10 |
| CHW | 82 | 97 | 123 | 117 | 2 | 136 | 2 |
I normally like to go with the Yankees against a lefty, but they are facing a team here that is even better against lefties. They are also facing a much tougher starter with a bullpen that is cooking right now.
Rodon has just been lights out to start the season with a 1.47 ERA/2.40 FIP. The Yankees offense has a 105 wRC+ on the season against lefties, lower than expected, and the team has been not as strong over the past two weeks.
This one is all about the White Sox though. They have a huge 142 wRC+ against lefties on the season and a 136 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Just a really hot offense against an average-ish pitcher.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.94 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.94 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/21 11:35:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.08 | 88 | 85 | 93 | 78 | 1 | 93 | 10 |
| MIA | 82 | 116 | 79 | 89 | 22 | 81 | 23 | |
| Jordan Holloway | 3.38 | 74 | 92 | 208 | 87 | 4 | 64 | 2 |
| NYM | 70 | 101 | 102 | 91 | 20 | 76 | 25 |
Offense should be at a premium here which makes the winning margin thin, but the Mets should get it done here. Marcus Stroman has been lucky early with a 2.70 ERA/4.08 FIP. He draws a nice match-up here against a Marlins offense that has just an 85 wRC+ on the season.
The Mets aren’t much better with a 88 wRC+ against righties, but I like their match-up better. Jordan Holloway will only go about three innings which gets them into the bullpen. Six innings of bullpen is a lot to ask and I think the Mets will get it done in that period.
Pick: Bet Mets Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/21 11:35:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 4.34 | 110 | 92 | 104 | 118 | 26 | 127 | 28 |
| CIN | 126 | 100 | 90 | 105 | 7 | 101 | 16 | |
| Jeff Hoffman | 4.52 | 124 | 103 | 137 | 115 | 25 | 108 | 22 |
| MIL | 97 | 113 | 96 | 82 | 28 | 71 | 28 |
I really don’t understand this line as the Brewers are favored here. The Reds offense is better in every way and I’d put these two starters as about even.
Neither one of these bullpens has played very well of late, but I trust the Reds offense to actually do something with the match-up a lot more than the Brewers. Milwaukee has just a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 2.13 Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +113 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.10 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/21 11:35:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer | 3.15 | 94 | 119 | 92 | 96 | 13 | 73 | 4 |
| SFG | 117 | 113 | 114 | 104 | 8 | 112 | 8 | |
| Alex Wood | 2.74 | 95 | 97 | 85 | 125 | 29 | 121 | 26 |
| LAD | 97 | 101 | 123 | 113 | 3 | 120 | 5 |
This is a pretty good pitching match-up in a pitcher’s park. Bauer has the better projection while Wood has the better 2021 stats. I’d rank them about even and the system sees this one as a deadlock after 5 innings. I almost never see that with the system, a tie after five.
The big difference here should be the bullpens. The Dodgers have a good one and the Giants do not. Both of these teams are hitting the ball well of late. The Dodgers are just better.
Pick: Bet Dodgers Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -123 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/21 11:35:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
