May 24th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

Three MLB System picks for May 24th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Austin Gomber 3.97 82 103 143 118 26 128 28
NYM   65 101 99 87 23 65 30
David Peterson 4.12 116 121 109 79 1 96 12
COL   85 103 84 77 30 78 24

This game has “Coors hangover” potential for the Rockies. Their offense is not all that great to begin with and they usually struggle after having a series at home.

Neither pitcher is one to get too excited about, but there is a huge gap in bullpens between these two teams. The Mets have a great one, the Rockies definitely do not.

I trust the Mets offense a lot more against lefties, but I’d still like to see some more homeruns from them. Maybe Gomber will help with that today.

Pick: Bet Mets Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.72 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -138 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.72 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/24 12:11:53 PM EST but are subject to change.)

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Blake Snell 3.72 92 148 183 89 6 81 5
MIL   94 114 98 82 28 78 24
Brandon Woodruff 2.45 39 114 72 117 25 147 29
SDP   87 90 116 102 11 135 2

A great pitching match-up here with two of the best in the game. The big difference here is the offenses. The Padres have dealt with a ton of injuries thus far, but they are still trucking along and have hit righties well this season. While the Brewers have been not good at all with just an 82 wRC+ on the season.

I like Snell quite a bit here as the Brewers offense strikes out a ton and he is very good at racking up strikeouts. I could see him and Woodruff playing to a stalemate early. If that happens, I am a lot m ore trusting of the Padres bullpen right now. The Brewers bullpen has a 147 FIP- over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Padres Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 2.01 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: EVEN at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/24 12:11:53 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
John Means 3.25 89 101 56 99 16 90 10
MIN   119 99 101 103 10 100 16
Matt Shoemaker 6.5 184 62 118 113 23 105 18
BAL   87 97 93 92 19 105 14

This was a real shocker to see from the system. It’s one of those lines where I check all the formulas to make sure there isn’t some mistake.

There isn’t. The Orioles just look really good in this match-up. Matt Shoemaker has been hit hard this season and he has a low strikeout, high walk, and high HR/9 rate. That is the trifecta of what we are looking for in a match-up like this. The Orioles offense projects to do very well against him.

John Means has been excellent this year with a 1.70 ERA/3.25 FIP. He gets strikeouts and keeps his walks down. The Twins are a dangerous offense, but we’re only looking for two times through the order with the five inning play.

Pick: Bet Orioles First 5 Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/24 12:11:53 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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