May 26th, 2023 MLB Betting Tips

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1-1 last night on Patreon. 62-39 in May.

W Rays -0.5 First 5 Innings
L Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings

Tough loss on the Mariners as Gilbert allowed a two-run homerun in the first then went on to throw eight no-run one-hit innings. A little different sequence of events would’ve helped there. Still, I’ll take cashing three out of four bets in that series.

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Six tips today.

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All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

PHI – Taijuan Walker
ATL – Jared Shuster

The Phillies have been average against lefties this year and I think Shuster looks good here. His first three starts weren’t great, but he’s coming off a great six inning, seven strikeout, one run start last time out. He is better than those first three starts and the Phillies have been cold of late with an 88 wRC+ over the past month.

The reason for this pick is not Shuster, of course. The reason is the Phillies offense. Walker has a 5.79 ERA/5.12 FIP over ten starts this year. His walks and homeruns are both up, and today he faces a really dangerous offense on the road.

Year-to-date these bullpens have been similar, but the Braves offense is just so much better I think they win this one easy.

Braves Moneyline (-146)
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San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

SFG – Alex Wood
MIL – Freddy Peralta

These two starters are good, but they aren’t showing it right now with both being well below projections thus far. Not a huge sample on Wood with just 20 innings, but a 4.05 ERA/4.63 FIP isn’t encouraging. While Peralta has a 4.15 ERA/4.08 FIP this year. These offenses aren’t world beaters, but I’m not seeing any shutouts.

Both of these bullpens are below average and I think we see some runs on the board.

Giants/Brewers Over 8 Runs (-110)

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

TOR – Kevin Gausman
MIN – Louie Varland

Gausman has been one of the top pitchers in the league thus far with a 3.14 ERA/2.47 FIP. The Twins are an average offense against righties this year and the wind is blowing in. I think Gausman cooks here.

Varland has been lucky this year with a 4.18 ERA/5.17 FIP. The Jays have a 110 wRC+ against righties so they are definitely one that can make him pay.
The Twins bullpen is the better of the two, but that is neutralized by the big advantage in the Jays offense.

Jays Moneyline (-148)
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New York Mets at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

NYM – Max Scherzer
COL – Connor Seabold

Scherzer has been starting to put it together and he gets a great match-up here as the Rockies have just an 80 wRC+ against righties this season.

Since becoming a starter, Seabold has a 6.50 ERA/7.05 FIP. He’s allowed 3+ in three of his four starts. He’s not good. The Mets offense is just about average against righties with a 103 wRC+, but when the match-up is juicy like this it won’t take much.

Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings (-140)
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Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

MIA – Jesus Luzardo
LAA – Reid Detmers

A nice pitching match-up here, but one that is clearly in favor of the Angels.
Detmers has been a bit unlucky thus far with a 4.87 ERA/3.42 FIP. He has absolutely huge strikeout numbers at 11.73 K/9 and I like the match-up-. The Marlins have a 95 wRC+ against lefties and are coming in with a Coors hangover.

Luzardo has been good with a 3.83 ERA/3.90 FIP. The Angels are tough though with a 107 wRC+ against lefties. They are in good form right now as well with a 109 wRC+ over the last thirty days.

I debated F5 and full game here. The L14 bullpen is really in favor of the Marlins, but when you look at L30 and year-to-date it shouldn’t be an advantage. Angels win at home here.

Angels Moneyline (-150)

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips:

HOU – Hunter Brown
OAK – James Kaprielian

This is kind of getting ridiculous, but until they change the price I am going to keep going against Oakland. They are 10-42 this season, so bad, but they are also 20-32 against the runline. These games haven’t even been close.

Kaprielian has a 8.68 ERA/6.38 FIP this season so he’s unlikely to be the savior. They still have the league worst bullpen. Houston has a 95 wRC+ against righties, but will be getting a boost here with Altuve back in the lineup.

Hunter Brown has been excellent with a 3.20 ERA/3.18 FIP. The Astros bullpen has a 78 FIP- over the last thirty days.

Astros -1.5 (-152)