May 2nd, 2023 MLB Betting Tips

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2-0 last night on Patreon.

W Cubs Moneyline
W Blue Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings

That F5 really paid off as the Jays bullpen could not hold the lead.

The MLB System is rounding into strong form with a 53-40 record over the last three weeks.

I also have five NBA Playoffs tips on Patreon. Also on Patreon, Graeme had a huge weekend with 6.00 and 6.50 wins in Formula 1.

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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

CHC – Hayden Wesneski
WSN – Trevor Williams

The Cubs look like a good bet again tonight even though Wesneski is on the mound. He has a rough 5.24 ERA/6.03 FIP on the year, but a lot of that is a really rough second start and he’s been much better over his last three starts with a 2.76 ERA/4.00 FIP. That’s usually not a slam dunk bet unless it’s against an offensive like Washington. They have just a 73 wRC+ against righties this season.

The Cubs have a 110 wRC+ against righties and are playing well right now across the board.

Cubs Moneyline (-138)

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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

TOR – Yusei Kikuchi
BOS – Tanner Houck

Last night was a slugfest and I expect this to be more of the same. Kikuchi can’t keep getting away with this and he will blow up soon. He checks all the boxes: 97% left on base, .273 BABIP, and 2 HR/9. Two of those are lucky and the third is a red flag. Boston has a 102 wRC+ against lefties this year and has hit very well at home with a 115 wRC+ this season.

The Jays stayed hot at the plate last night. They have a 110 wRC+ against righties this season and they should be able to chase Houck early. That will be a good thing as the bullpen has a 112 FIP- over the last two weeks.

The System has this one going for 10+ runs.

Jays/Red Sox Over 9.5 (-103)

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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

MIN – Joe Ryan
CHW – Michael Kopech

The White Sox are just a complete mess right now and are just 1-9 over their last ten. It’s hard to have any confidence in them in any facet of the game. Kopech has struggled to start, the offense has just an 85 wRC+ against righties, and the bullpen has a 124 FIP- on the season.

Joe Ryan is good. The Twins are good.

Twins -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

BAL – Tyler Wells
KCR – Ryan Yarbrough

This is one I debated between Orioles Over 4.5 (-128) and Orioles -0.5 F5 (-110). In the end, you always go with the better price.

The Orioles have been amazing against lefties this year with a 122 wRC+ with low strikeouts and high homeruns. A perfect match. Yarbrough will open here and maybe go four innings. He is hittable with a 6.35 ERA/5.68 FIP.

The Royals have just a 51 wRC+ against righties, a 70 wRC+ this season, and a 49 wRC+ (!) at home this year. Wells has been quite good thus far with a 2.79 ERA/3.91 FIP.

Orioles -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

MIL – Freddy Peralta
COL – Ryan Feltner

The Brewers are the top play of the day today as I continue to think the Rockies are just a bad team. Peralta has big strikeout stuff which should play well in this park. He has a 3.77 ERA/3.18 FIP this season. The Rockies have just a 76 wRC+ against righties and a 68 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Feltner has been solid, but he’s definitely pitching far above projections right now. He has a 4.68 ERA/3.95, but ZiPS has him at 5.11 ERA/4.77 FIP for the rest of the season. His walks are huge, but his homeruns have been down below career norms. I expect those to come up here.

Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)