NHL East Division Advanced Metrics Playoff Predictions

Graeme

Hi everyone,

Over the next few days, I am going to tackle all 8 playoff series in the 2021 NHL season, and give you my analysis and predictions of them based purely on advanced metric matchups.

What that means is that I will go through all of the matchups between the teams, look at the individual and team advanced metric data, and provide my predictions based on that.

I will NOT be thinking about any other factors such as injuries at the time of games, scheduling at those games etc etc. This is more just a baseline where based on the prior matchups between these teams. Then we’ll see what would be the best bets to make for each series based on that.

Let’s cover the East Division first. We have Bruins vs Capitals, and Penguins vs Islanders.

And first of all – why not take a few minutes and enter the FREE $10,000 NHL Predictor Contest?

Simply Click this link and click on contests.

Bruins vs Capitals begins on Saturday, May 15th and Pittsburgh Penguins vs New York Islanders is Sunday, May 16th.

Bruins vs Capitals Advanced Metrics Series Predictions:

We have 8 games of data between the teams. The majority of them were high scoring games with a couple of feisty affairs. I’m going to discount the May 11th game from my analysis simply because both teams were qualified and couldn’t care less.

Metric wise, this was a very even series by the Corsi. It didn’t seem to matter who was the best team advanced metric wise results wise.

I’ve analyzed it and to summarize: this one is 50-50. I believe it can go either way. Therefore based on matchups, Capitals To Win The Series is the correct play.

Canada: Best Odds: 2.45 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
USA: Best Odds: +141 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.45 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 1:58:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Penguins vs Islanders Advanced Metrics Series Predictions:

Crazy these two haven’t played each other since the end of March.

While not always the case, it’s more common that if the Penguins play good, they win. That might sound silly but if you looked at the data for Bruins/Caps you’d see it’s really not. They often have a lower xG but that often doesn’t matter with clinical finishing.

Essentially over 7 games, Penguins are the team to back with confidence. Home/road it shouldn’t matter too much.

Penguins are the bet to make. I would even go for more value, and take Penguins -1.5 to win the series.

Canada: Best Odds: 2.35 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.35 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus

(Odds correct as of 2021/05/14 1:58:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Remember – join the FREE $10,000 NHL Playoff Predictor Contest. Click Here and click on contests.



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