NHL Central Division Advanced Metrics Playoff Predictions

A fun start to the NHL playoffs with the Capitals winning in overtime.

I said in the advanced metrics predictions for that series, that it was going to be very close and that Capitals to win the series was the correct play.

Good to see them take that early lead. 2.45 was a nice price and hoping it keeps up.

In this post, I will cover the Central Division and go with advanced metrics picks on that.

As mentioned previously – this is ignoring the likes of injuries etc and just examing the advanced metrics for all matchups between the teams.

Let’s see what we got:

Lightning vs Panthers Advanced Metrics Series Predictions:

Tampa are decent favourites here.

I’m going to ignore the May 8th and May 10th games between the teams. Just feel by that point of the season most teams were just ready for the playoffs.

In the six other games, they split them 3-3.

Going by the advanced metrics, Panthers were the better side the majority of the time in Corsi/Fenwick. Being better in this series didn’t mean you actually won though. xG wise, they match up with Corsi/Fenwick.

This one is like the Capitals/Bruins one yesterday. It’s a very close series, and based on that we’re best to take the underdogs. Personally I like the bet on this one to end in Game 7, or over 5.5 games or whatever. I feel like it will go all the way.

Based on the metrics though, Panthers to win the series is the play

Canada: Best Odds:2.35 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
USA: Best Odds: +135 at SportsBetting.ag- 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.35 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 7:17:24 AM EST but are subject to change.).

Hurricanes vs Predators Advanced Metrics Series Predictions:

So in quite a surprise to me, the Hurricanes dont dominate the metrics against the Preds. They are one of the best teams advanced metrics wise but it really doesn’t show as well in these matchups.

Discounting the two May games, the Hurricanes won all 6 matchups between the two regardless of not dominating the metrics. That means quite simply that they are the better side regardless of it. The story of each game is high danger fchances. Canes are able to generate more and capitalize. They also had PDO on their side for each game.

This is one where the Hurricanes covering the handicap is probably the most popular bet by many, but looking at this it is very, very dangerous. Not something I would risk.

I also don’t believe that the Predators are worth betting at 3.25 odds. The advanced metrics suggest that they are worth the punt because if a few more things go their way, they can easily make this a contest.

But the odds just aren’t good enough for me based on actual results. 4.00 I may consider it, 5.00 would be a play.

So no bet for this series but if you wish to, here are the best odds for the Predators to win the series:

Canada: Best Odds: 3.33 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +210 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 3.25 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/16 7:17:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Leave a Comment