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Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
SEA – Luis Castillo 2.99 ERA/3.07 FIP
HOU – Framber Valdez 2.82 ERA/3.16 FIP
This is another painfully close game in the System. The sportsbook has Houston at -155, but the System sees it closer to -115.
This is a good match-up for Seattle against a lefty. The team hit them much better in the regular season with a 112 wRC+ against. Of course, Valdez is no slouch and h e was amazing at home this season with a 3.54 ERA/2.46 FIP. Big differences in ERA/FIP like that can be flukey, but that .332 BABIP could hurt today.
Luis Castillo was brilliant in his first game of these playoffs shutting down a very tough Blue Jays offense. The Astros are dangerous at home, but they aren’t quite as scary against righties with a 104 wRC+ during the season. One thing I find interesting about Castillo in this match-up is that he did not face the Astros this season and I think that will help him.
The Astros bullpen and overall offense beats Seattle overall, but I like them better early. There is a very high chance of another tie after five innings so I’m taking Seattle and the runs here.
Seattle +0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
CLE – Shane Bieber 2.88 ERA/2.87 FIP
NYY – Nestor Cortes 2.44 ERA/3.13 FIP
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Baylor vs. West Virginia Betting Tips:
Baylor has never won at West Virginia in the history of the program and I think that issue is coloring this line a bit.
Baylor was a Big 12 favorite this year and while they have disappointed somewhat early, I still think they are a very good team that can win this game by a touchdown.
West Virginia’s offense has been solid, but it should have trouble here. Running back CJ Donaldson is likely to be out which puts extra pressure on JT Daniels. Baylor’s defense has looked very good early, allowing just 20 points per game.
I like the Baylor offense to control the ball with the run here, the defense to stop the run, and Baylor to get over the hump in West Virginia.
Baylor -3.5
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