October 16th, 2021 NLCS/ALCS MLB Betting Tips

Two MLB System tips for the ALCS game two and NLCS game one tonight.

A 1-0 record last night as the Astros went big in the late innings.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Nathan Eovaldi 58 58 111 54 84 2 101 18
HOU   112 85 107 116 1 116 3
Luis Garcia 83 23 112 61 84 3 95 12
BOS   111 99 99 107 6 112 4

This game is incredibly close in the System to the point where if it came up during the regular season that I would just look at it and move on.

The Red Sox are sending their best pitcher to the mound in Nathan Eovaldi. Based on what we’ve seen from most starters in the playoffs, he’s been fantastic with two starts going at least five innings and only three runs allowed. He draws a tough match-up here with the Astros who had a 116 wRC+ against righties on the season. Houston did most of their damage late yesterday so hopefully they can do that here as well.

Luis Garcia goes for the Astros. He was decent on the season with a 3.30 ERA/3.63 FIP. He was good, but not great and I’d be surprised him lasting deep into this game. The Red Sox need to come out hot like they did yesterday against him.

Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/16 11:09:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Max Scherzer 70 94 146 59 81 1 89 6
ATL   121 108 99 98 12 100 14
Max Fried 82 66 102 69 101 16 93 9
LAD   120 101 107 106 7 105 9

An interesting match-up here as the Dodgers will be sending Max Scherzer out after he just closed out the game two days ago. He only threw 13 pitches in that one, but you have to think he was going max effort there. How deep can he go? Will he be himself? That’s the big question here.

I think it will be a good match-up for him if he can do it. The Braves wRC+ against righties is dead average and the strikeouts should be high.

This will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers with Corey Knebel starting and then Tony Gonsolin following. The walks for Gonsolin worry me a bit, but he will have a quick hook here.

Max Fried goes for the Braves and I think the Dodgers can get to him. They had a 104 wRC+ against lefties on the year. The big bonus here is the Dodgers against this Braves bullpen. It is the worst bullpen left in the playoffs as I have them with a 101 FIP- in high leverage situations.

The Dodgers seem like they should easily win this series. They are the better team in all the major categories and I might put a very small bet on the Dodgers to sweep at +650.

For today, I will be taking the Dodgers to win game one. Less sure of it than if Max was starting, but this still looks like the better offense and bullpen, and Fried isn’t lights out enough to sway that.

Pick: Bet Dodgers Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.94 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -106 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.94 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/16 11:09:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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