October 1st, 2019 Betting Tips: NL Wild Card Game, WNBA Finals

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The MLB Playoffs are here. Once again, the Dodgers look like the very best team in the National League and they’ll play the winner of tonight’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals.

In the American League, it’s going to be an absolute war. The Yankees, Twins, and Astros all finished with over 100 wins on the season and represent three of the best offenses in the game. The Astros got the top seed and they will play the winner of tomorrow’s Athletics vs. Rays games. Both of those teams are more well rounded without a lot of holes, but either one will have their work cut out for them.

The other series are Cardinals vs. Braves in the NLDS and Yankees vs. Twins in the ALDS. ZiPS gives the Yankees a 51% chance of winning this series as they have the far better bullpen on the year and a very dangerous offense. The Braves are a 55.2% favorite over the Cardinals in their series. I don’t have a great feel for this one either way.

Let’s take a look at the World Series odds before getting into it:

  • Houston Astros +190
  • Los Angeles Dodgers +285
  • New York Yankees +475
  • Atlanta Braves +1050
  • St. Louis Cardinals +1050
  • Washington Nationals +1150
  • Oakland Athletics +1425
  • Minnesota Twins +1625
  • Tampa Bay Rays +2800
  • Milwaukee Brewers +3300

The Astros and Dodgers are major favorites and even betting them to match-up in the World Series is only +272. The better value is Dodgers vs. Yankees at +570. I just have a really hard time seeing anyone but the Dodgers coming out of the NL. Maybe the Nationals if the pitching gets hot, but that’s a huge if. The Cardinals devil magic is always a threat, but I just don’t see it with this roster. The Dodgers look like the team.

In the American League, who knows. The Yankees have that scary bullpen and I think we’re going to see more bullpen than ever in these playoffs, but the starters are vulnerable. The Astros are the deepest all around and are favorites for a good reason.

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MLB Betting Tips:

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals: This game is all about pitching. Max Scherzer goes for the Nationals and he’s been one of the best pitchers in the game over the past several seasons. His postseason record has been solid, but not quite as scary and I think the Brewers will be doing whatever they can to get him out of the game early. Of all the existing playoff teams, the Nationals have the worst bullpen of all and that could come back to haunt them today.

Brandon Woodruff has been great for the Brewers, but I don’t see him going very long here. His road numbers are not as good as his home numbers, but they are still quite good. He’ll have a very short leash as the Brewers go with the bullpen in his one. The Nationals offense has been very solid this year and they are at home.

Conventional wisdom says to go with the under here and the Nationals. My system likes the Nationals, but not quite as much as the sportsbook too. There is a very small amount of value betting on the Brewers, but I think the best bet is the over here. My systems sees them over 8 runs and the total here is 7.5. This playoffs is going to feature a lot of scoring and I think that starts tonight.

Bet Brewers/Nationals Over 7.5 Runs

WNBA Betting Tips:

Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics: The Washington Mystics have been one of the very best home teams in the league this year with a 17-3 record on the year in home games. They have yet to lose there in the playoffs and looked great in game one. While Connecticut has just 9-10 record on the road this year.

Sometimes it’s really that simple. Washington looks like the next WNBA champion and while this line is pretty big, I think they can cover it.

Bet Washington -8