October 9th, 2021 NLDS MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1-1 record last night.

It could’ve very easily been a 4-0 night as the loss and the push were both games where they were tied after five innings.

The White Sox push is the one that hurt as they scored three runs in the top of the 5th to take the lead, but then gave up two runs to tie in the bottom. The White Sox bullpen blew that one in a major way so I’m glad we stuck with the F5 there.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Max Fried 82 66 102 69 101 16 93 9
MIL   95 108 105 91 23 98 16
Brandon Woodruff 62 74 128 68 88 5 105 21
ATL   112 108 99 98 12 100 14

The Brewers got the win last night behind an outstanding start by Corbin Burnes. He threw six scoreless innings and I would not be surprised to see Brandon Woodruff do the same here today. He’s been simply outstanding this season with a 2.56 ERA/2.96 FIP. Big strikeout numbers and he keeps his walks and homeruns low. The Braves have a lot of power, but they strikeout a lot.

I don’t trust the Brewers offense much. They had just a 90 wRC+ on the season, but I trust Woodruff and their bullpen is very strong in high leverage situations. The Braves bullpen I do not trust as much. I have them as the worst in the playoffs.

That’s enough for me to go Brewers again here.

Pick: Bet Brewers Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -117 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.85 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/09 11:38:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Julio Urias 69 75 112 57 81 1 89 6
SFG   112 106 106 108 5 109 6
Kevin Gausman 73 76 126 73 93 9 85 3
LAD   108 101 107 106 7 105 9

The vaunted Dodgers offense was shut out last night as the Giants won 4-0. Things won’t get any easier tonight for the offense.

Kevin Gausman had a great season with a 2.81 ERA/3.00 FIP. A big strikeout rate, low walks and low homeruns. That is exactly the profile you want to have against a team like the Dodgers who have a 107 wRC+ against righties.

Julio Urias was right there with Gausman on the season with a 2.96 ERA/3.13 FIP. The same profile as he strikeouts a bunch of people, doesn’t walk and rarely gives up homeruns. It’s the exact profile you want against a team like the Giants who have a 103 wRC+ on the season against lefties.

Both of these teams will not be shy to pull the plug on the starters if the situation calls for it. They both use their bullpens very well and I just see runs being hard to come by once again.

Pick: Bet Dodgers/Giants Under 7.5

USA: Best Odds: -113 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.88 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/09 11:38:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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