PDC 2011 World Championships Day 12 Tips

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Right, we’ve got two days of stats to catch up on, as well as trying to catch our breath after seeing James Wade eliminated by Mensur “The Gentle” Suljovic and then Gary Anderson and Dennis Priestley serving up a cracker.

We’re now 14-16 and we’re in profit to the tune of +7.23 units, so we’re looking good gonig into the next batch of third round matches.

Here are all the free bets on offer during the PDC World Championships

Free £25 bet @ Betfair.

Free £25 bet @ Stan James.

Free £25 bet @ Victor Chandler.

Free £10 bet @ Paddy Power.

Free £10 bet @ Blue Square.

Adrian Lewis vs Robert Thornton.

Adrian Lewis:

2nd round: Beat Mark Dudbridge 4-1
2nd round average: 90.28
Tournament 180s: 9

Robert Thornton:

2nd round: Beat Andy Hamilton 4-0
2nd round average: 90.16
Tournament 180s: 6

A big match for both players, as they’ll be looking to show some kind of form, after indifferent years. Both men got great results in round two and both looked to be playing well, but also making some fundamental mistakes. The second ruond averages are unbelievably close and their first ronud averages are only split by 3 points in Lewis’ favour.

I think this will be close than the bookies think, as they have Lewis as a 1/3 favourite. Thornton is no mug and if he can start doubling well, he’s going to push Lewis all the way. It’s a tricky match this, as the 180 line is set perfectly at 10.5, while the highest checkout is anywhere from 126.5 to 130.5. Lewis is always capable of a big checkout and he might have to fire a few in to beat Thornton, so that’s where we’re going to be looking, as well as backing Thornton, as his price is just too big.

Robert Thornton to beat Adrian Lewis 3/1 @ Stan James.

Recommend: 1 unit.

Highest checkout in Lewis vs Thornton match over 126.5 5/6 @ Blue Square.

Recommend: 2 units.

Gary Anderson vs Andy Smith.

Gary Anderson:

2nd round: Beat Dennis Priestley 4-2
2nd round average: 103.44
Tournament 180s: 16

Andy Smith:

2nd round: Beat Mervyn King 4-3
2nd ronud average: 93.05
Tournament 180s: 13

Man of the moment (perhaps after Mark Webster), Gary Anderson takes on the man who did us a favuor last night, Andy Smith. Can lightning strike twice and can Smith claim another big name scalp? In a word: no. Anderson has 10 points on Smith and Dennis Priestley had to average near enough 100 just to take two sets from him. Smith got lucky with a lot of missed doubles from King, while Anderson did miss some doubles, he didn’t gift Priestley too much.

Smith will also need to be as sharp on his doubling, as he’ll be faced with a lot of big shots with Anderson waiting on a two-darter. While the head-to-head does favour Smith, this is a different game altogether now that it’s the third round of the PDC World Championships. Anderson is around 1/8 and sadly that’s no value at all. The same applies for the handicap, which is -3.5 for Anderson. And the 180 line is strange as, looking at the stats, 10.5 does seem a bit low, but we’d be relying heavily on Anderson battering in the majority of them and the amount of 140s he hit was a bit worrying, especially if he’s not pushed by Smith. So, we’ll leafve this match well alone, as the markets are just a bit strange.

Recommend: No bet.

Terry Jenkins vs Mark Walsh.

Terry Jenkins:

2nd round: Beat Steve Brown 4-1
2nd round average: 91.96
Tournament 180s: 10

Mark Walsh:

2nd round: Beat Alan Tabern 4-3
2nd round average: 89.33
Tournament 180s: 14

Oh, this is gonig to be a cracker. Terry Jenkins hasn’t really been pushed so far this tuornament (despite the 3-2 win over Joe Cullen), while Mark Walsh was pushed all the way and then some by Alan Tabern. This has the potential to go all the way again and even though Walsh’s average was under 90, that’s down to his terrible couple of sets.

On their day, they’re both capable of some great darts and the bookies pirce Jenkins up as the favourite. It’s probably fair looking at the second round performances, but Walsh might be the value at 6/4, so long as he gets his doubling going. I did consider the 180s market, but again, the bookies have this one almost perfect, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10.5 beat, but it’s right where I would have it, so we have to leave it alone.

Mark Walsh to beat Terry Jenkins 6/4 @ Stan James.

Recommend: 1 unit.

Simon Whitlock vs vincent van der Voort.

Simon Whitlock:

2nd round: Beat Denis Ovens 4-0
2nd rond average: 102.86
Tournament 180s: 9

Vincent van der Voort:

2nd round: Beat Wayne Jones 4-2
2nd round average: 93.96
Tournament 180s: 7

It was good to see Simon Whitlock back to somewhere near his beat in the second round. When he’s playing well, he’s a great sight to behold. The same thing can be said about Vincent van der Voort, as when he starts scoring heavily, he’s great to watch. But he’s frustrating, too. Looking at the last round, Whitlock should have the match in the bag. There haven’t been too many head-to-heads between the two, which is surprising, so we can’t go on that form. What we have to use are the figures in front of us and they all point to a Whitlock win. The bookies think so, too and have Whitlock at aruond 1/7.

The handicap is -2.5, which is fair, but could still be a problem if VDV scores heavily for a couple of sets, which we know he can do. There is one market I like the look of, which is the highest checkout market. The line is 126.5 and both men have fired in checkouts far greater than that this tournament and both will need to do this to keep their opponent at bay.

Highest checkout in Whitlock vs van der Voort match over 126.5 5/6 @ Blue Square.

Recommend: 2 units.

Raymond van Barneveld vs Colin Osborne.

Raymond van Barneveld:

2nd round: Beat Kevin McDine 4-1
2nd round average: 98.24
Tournament 180s: 12

Colin Osborne:

2nd round: Beat Jamie Caven 4-0
2nd round average: 89.82
Tournament 180s: 10

Well, Raymond van Barneveld came back into form last night against Kevin McDine. He fired in 10 maximums on his way to a comfortable win. Looking at how his opponent, Colin Osborne played against Jamie Caven, Barney might have another relatively trouble-free match. Osborne looked decent in spells, but he was helped by Caven’s woeful scoring and inability to hit a double when it was require. The fact he averaged 89.82 and won 4-0 speaks volumes. The bookies are looking at a handicap line of -3.5 for Barney which is absurd, but then the price isn’t great for Osborne, either.

The interesting stat is the highest checkout for both men during this tournament. Osborne has a highest checkout of 91, while Barney’s is 121. However, Osborne can take the big finishes out and we all know what Barney is capable of, so the lnie is situated just perfectly. Sadly, I can’t find an angle for this match, so we’ll just leave it for now.

Recommend: No bet.

Wes Newton vs Mensur Suljovic.

Wes Newton:

2nd round: Beat Brendan Dolan 4-0
2nd round average: 92.63
Tournament 180s: 3

Mensur Suljovic:

2nd round: Beat James Wade 4-2
2nd round average: 88.55
Tournament 180s: 10

The final match of the night sees the saviour of Darts Betting Tips (after Co Stompe), Mensur “The Gentle” Suljovic take on Wes Newton, who is yet to drop a set this tournament.

Can Suljovic dump out another seed? Well, the bookies give him a slight chance at 13/8 and I like that price, as Newton hasn’t been challenged by his opponents and Suljovic can dish out the pressure, as we saw against James Wade on Tuesday night.

Suljovic has also been firing in the 180s, hitting 7 against Wade and the bookies have him at Evens to score the most in this match. The fact Newton hit no maximums in the first round speaks volumes. So we have two bets to finish the night off.

Mensur Suljovic to beat Wes Newton 13/8 @ Victor Chandler.

Recommend: 2 units.

Mensur Suljovic to score more 180s than Wes Newton 6/5 @ Paddy Power.

Recommend: 2.5 units.

And that finishes off the tips for the last lot of third round. We head to the quarter-finals in a good frame of mind, with some nice profit in our accounts and the post-Christmas spring in our step. Enjoy what promises to be some classic action and happy betting!