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Tuesday was a day of two sessions, to be a bit cliche. The afternoon session was a bit disappointing, but as the day went on, things got a hell of a lot better, culminating in Dave Chisnall landing a 6/1 shot for us, knocking out Phil Taylor in the process.
We’re now sitting at 22-20 with a lovely profit of +13.55 units to see us into Day 11 of the PDC World Championship. The draw is now wide open going into the third round later tonight and every player will fancy their chances of a good run now. So, let’s get onto the tips and get some more winners.
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Mervyn King (12) versus Michael van Gerwen.
Mervyn King: Best price – 1/2 @ Betfair.
First round:
Beat Geoff Kime 3-0
Average: 98.02
180s: 3
Highest checkout: 82
Total legs played: 9
Michael van Gerwen: Best price – 7/4 @
First round:
Beat Colin Osborne 3-1
Average: 93.84
180s: 2
Highest checkout: 135
Total legs played: 16
A battle of the resurgent players and both men put in great performances in the first round. For Mervyn King, it was an expected win after a solid Players Championship Finals in Doncaster, and he didn’t drop a leg or break into a sweat against the unbelievably poor Geoff Kime. To be fair, putting in such a high average when your opponent is averaging in the 60s is an indication that he’s in some serious form. His doubling was solid and he managed 4 maximums in the space of 9 legs, so he’s clearly scoring heavily.
As for Michael van Gerwen, he’s been impressing more and more on the TV stage recently, and his win over Colin Osborne was nothing short of phenomenal when you consider the amount of 170-177 scores he put in on top of the maximums. His average tells more of a story than the 180s do. It was a sign that the young Dutchman perhaps needed to take a step down and start winning again on the PDC Youth Tour, which has proven to be great for MVG’s game.
Looking at this, even though Van Gerwen played exceptionally in the first round, there were patches where he was poor, and he wasn’t punished by Osborne. King should punish him, as he’s playing at a higher level than Osborne. However, this could be close and I can see MVG getting a couple of sets on the board. While I do like King 4-2 here, the variable mean that I’d rather be backing the total number of sets, just in case it goes further, or MVG actually wins 4-2. So, the line of 5.5 gives us room to move.
Total number of sets in Mervyn King versus Michael van Gerwen over 5.5: 8/11 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 2 units.
Simon Whitlock (5) versus Steve Beaton (28).
Simon Whitlock: Best price: 1/4 @
First round:
Beat Dennis Smith 3-0
Average: 105.11
180s: 7
Highest checkout: 125
Total legs played: 10
Steve Beaton: Best price – 7/2 @ Betfair.
First round:
Beat Magnus Caris 3-2
Average: 81.80
180s: 0
Highest checkout: 100
Total legs played: 21
Simon Whitlock put in the performance of the first round, averaging over 105 and knocking in 7 maximums over ten legs, which is unbelievable for a player who had a few weeks out with a broken foot. I mean there’s no arguing how badly a foot injury can affect a darts player! So, the Aussie is in a good place now heading into what could be perceived as a tricky match against Steve Beaton. Normally an injury lay-off would have me worried, but Whitlock showed a level of performance that no-one else has shown so far in this tournament and if he can continue this, he’ll be the man to beat, not Gary Anderson as the bookies now thing.
Steve Beaton’s performance, on the other hand, was a fighting performance. The Adonis is lucky not to be back home after scraping through almost at sudden-death against Magnus Caris. It was a match most expected him to cruise through, but he struggled and didn’t even hit one maximum in 21 legs of darts. It wasn’t a sign that he’s ready to take on the man who dropped only one leg in the first round.
I can’t see anything other than a convincing Whitlock win here. His maximum count coupled with his average shows that he’s in some serious form. His average was more or less 20 points better than Beaton’s, which is just a bit shy of Mervyn King’s in his whitewash of Geoff Kime. So, using that logic, Whitlock would be a seriously good thing to win 4-1 or 4-0, and I can see it happening. Whitlock on the handicap is appealing to me, with the line at -2.5, as I can’t see Beaton taking more than 1 set here.
Simon Whitlock -2.5 sets to beat Steve Beaton: 11/10 @
Colin Lloyd (13) versus Scott Rand.
Colin Lloyd: Best price – 5/4 @ Betfair.
First round:
Beat Darin Young 3-1
Average: 94.72
180s: 4
Highest checkout: 52
Total legs played: 16
Scott Rand: Best price – 4/6 @ Paddy Power.
First round:
Beat Andy Smith 3-0
Average: 94.59
180s: 2
Highest checkout: 87
Total legs played: 9
A solid performance from Colin Lloyd in the first round, which is more than I expected from him, to be honest. He put in a good average, fired in a few maximums and all that was missing was a showboating checkout. However, it was all he needed to do, and it was good to see. It hasn’t convinced me that he’s back to anywhere near his best, but it was a sign that he hasn’t completely lost it. This is going to be tougher for him, but no doubt he’ll fancy his chances against his inexperienced opponent.
Scott Rand shocked quite a few people in the first round. It wasn’t shocking that he beat Andy Smith; far from it. However, the manner in which he defeated him was shocking. A whitewash was not expected. It was a confident and assured performance from Rand and carried on the form he showed in Doncaster at the start of the month. This match should be a tougher contest for him, but I don’t think any player outside the elite holds any fear for him at the moment.
I think the bookies have priced this one around right, as I think Rand’s confidence and form gives him the slight edge. If you didn’t follow darts outside of the World Championships, you would be forgiven for thinking Lloyd at odds-against versus a player you’d never heard of was a gift, but don’t be fooled. Mark Hylton was new on the big stage last year and defeated Colin Lloyd in the same round. so we’re going to ride the Rand Train for one more stop, as I think he’s got more to give against an out-of-sorts opponent who may still be lacking confidence in his game.
Scott Rand to beat Colin Lloyd: 4/6 @ Paddy Power.
Recommend: 2 units.
Gary Anderson (4) versus Devon Petersen.
Gary Anderson: Best price – 1/12 @ 888.com.
First round:
Beat Jyhan Artut 3-2
Average: 95.93
180s: 8
Highest checkout: 120
Total legs played: 27
Devon Petersen: Best price – 12/1 @ Betfair.
First round:
Beat Steve Brown 3-2
Average: 86.94
180s: 6
Highest checkout: 120
Total legs played: 23
You know, as hard as Gary Anderson was pushed against Jyhan Artut in the first round, he still put in a great performance, if you take out the missed doubles. It’s a sign that his scoring gives him such an advantage over players that when he’s shocking, he’s still in with a shout. If you take out the finishing, Anderson’s average would have been sky high, and he would have no doubt won 3-0. But finishing is the most important part of the game and it deserted Anderson at the worst possible moments. But he is known for hating the first round of tournaments and now it’s over, he should be in a much better position. Add in that he’s now the new favourite for the tournament, and Anderson will really be fancying this.
Devon Petersen surprised me by getting here. He played well in the first round, but it wasn’t to the standard that Jyhan Artut played against Anderson, so the chance of a shock seems minimal to me here. There’s no doubt Petersen is an up-and-coming player and has impressed at the two World Championships he’s played in, but it’s a huge step up for him here and I don’t see it happening for him.
There’s obviously no value in backing Anderson here, as although he should win, we’re not going to get rich on short prices like that. If you’ve got a few grand lying about, go for it, but the price isn’t for me, I’m afraid. However, some bookies are giving -2.5 on the handicap and I can see that coming in, although the price is still a little short. However, it looks good to me, so we’re going in and relying on Anderson not to implode.
Gary Anderson -2.5 sets to beat Devon Petersen: 8/15 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 5 units.
Adrian Lewis (2) versus Wayne Jones (15).
Adrian Lewis: Best price – 2/9 @
Second round:
Beat Robert Thornton 4-2
Average: 96.24
180s: 6
Highest checkout: 170
Legs played: 23
First round:
Beat Nigel Heydon 3-2
Average: 96.41
180s: 7
Highest checkout: 134
Legs played: 26
Wayne Jones: Best price – 7/2 @ Paddy Power.
Second round:
Beat Roland Scholten 4-0
Average: 91.07
180s: 4
Highest checkout: 116
Legs played: 15
First round:
Beat Scott MacKenzie 3-1.
Average: 94.49
180s: 8
Highest checkout: 89
Legs played: 16
We’re into the third round we start with the defending champion, Adrian Lewis. He had a shaky first round, but put hat behind him to take a confident win over Robert Thornton, who pushed Jackpot throughout the match. The 180 scoring which helped Lewis in the first round came back to help him again and his showboat checkouts also came in handy. So he’s looking in good form and he’ll need it, as one slip in concentration and it could be all over.
Wayne Jones has looked very handy in his first two matches of the World Championship. His second round victory over Roland Scholten backed up an assured first round win and it’s a level we’ve not seen Wayne Jones play at for a while. His maximum scoring, usually his downfall, has been very impressive and even his doubling has been solid, so he’ll be coming in with some confidence in his ability. Will it be enough? He’ll certainly think so.
Lewis is a short, short price and I can’t even believe the 4-1 scoreline is favourite here, as Jones will be coming into this match in some great form. While I think Lewis will take it, I see it being close, possibly going all 7 sets. So I think there’s going to be plenty of opportunity for a high checkout here, too. The bookies have this all wrong and I want to exploit that with two bets on the match.
Over 5.5 sets in Adrian Lewis versus Wayne Jones match: Evens @ Paddy Power.
Recommend: 2 units.
Highest checkout in Adrian Lewis versus Wayne Jones match over 125.5: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3.5 units.
Justin Pipe (26) versus Terry Jenkins (10).
Justin Pipe: Best price – 8/5 @ Betfair.
Second round:
Beat Wes Newton 4-3
Average: 91.83
180s: 6
Highest checkout: 90
Legs played: 32
First round:
Beat Sean Reed 3-1
Average: 88.65
180s: 2
Highest checkout: 62
Legs played: 15
Terry Jenkins: Best price – 4/7 @ Paddy Power.
Second round:
Beat Co Stompe 4-1
Average: 94.45
180s: 6
Highest checkout: 126
Legs played: 21
First round:
Beat Joe Cullen 3-0
Average: 95.39
180s: 2
Highest checkout: 116
Legs played: 12
If you’re sitting comfortably, Justin Pipe will begin. He’s ground out a huge win over Wes Newton to get himself into the third round and his performances have been nothing short of average. He’s doing what he has to do and gridning out wins, which is not to some people’s tastes, but it’s now finally working for Pipe, who will be climbing through the rankings after this tournament. Just think, winning the World Championship would probably get him into the Premier League, which would be a thing to behold. It would also mean the darts would have to start an hour earlier, but that’s neither here nor there. But Pipe is here on merit, and he could have had a worse draw. If he sticks to his game plan, he’s a match for most of the top 32.
Terry Jenkins saves his best for the TV, there’s no doubt about it. after a poor year, he’s put in two fantastic performances. Yes, Co Stompe was injured (damn you, Dutch dog!), but it was a competent performance and he looked assured and confident in his game. His doubling has been solid and his scoring has been exceptional for a man who is just as likely to hit 28 as he is to hit a maximum. Again, the draw could have been a lot worse for him, and he’ll no doubt be happier facing Pipe than he would be facing Wes Newton. But he’ll have respect for Pipe, because if he doesn’t he could be in for a shock.
To be honest, I have this marked down a bit closer than the bookies. While I think Jenkins deserves to be favourite, you can’t ignore the fact Pipe defeated one of the in-form players on the PDC Tour in the second round. Add in that his playing style can put players well off their game, and he should be a bit shorter. It’s because of his style that he’s worth a nibble at the price. The match will be last on, so it will have been a long day, which must just get to Jenkins. It will be a close one, I think, but we have to hope Justin Pipe takes it.
Justin Pipe to beat Terry Jenkins: 8/5 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 1 unit.
And that’s it for now. We’re into the third round without Phil Taylor, but we’ve still got some of the game’s best players in and I have to say that this is one unpredictable tournament, so it’s great we’ve done so well so far. Join me again tomorrow for more PDC World Championship tips.
Until then, remember our good friends that are offering £50 of free bets to their new customers. Don’t forget to head over to 888.com.