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PDC 2013 World Championship Day Fourteen Premium Picks.
First off, I just want to say that all subscribers to the Darts Betting Tips Premium Picks will get the Premium Picks for the BDO World Championship for free. You obviously subscribe for a winning tournament, and with only 3 matches left, it’s looking difficult. We’ve had some hard losses, so since I appreciate your subscription, the BDO Premium Picks are on me.
So we’ve got the semi-finals set, and it’s James Wade taking on Michael van Gerwen, as both men came through tough matches last night, winning 5-4. And then we’ve got Phil Taylor facing his old enemy Raymond van Barneveld. It’s an amazingly strong line-up, and I think it’s safe to say we’ll be seeing all four men in the Premier League in the New Year.
The Premium Picks went 1-2 last time out, taking them to 23-29 after thirteen days of the PDC 2013 World Championship, with a profit of -10.99 units.
Michael van Gerwen (7) Vs James Wade (3).
This is a huge game for both men for different reasons. James Wade needs to show everyone he’s back, as I mentioned yesterday, and he needs to have confidence back into his game. Michael van Gerwen just wants to live up to the hype that’s been surrounding him for the past 6 months.
James Wade has scraped through to the semi-finals by the skin of his teeth, but he’s as deserving of his place here as much as anyone else. He lived up to his 90-ish average for the tournament, clocking in at 92.89 against Wes Newton, which brings his tournament average to 91.43. His 5 180s takes his count for the tournament to 16, which isn’t what we’d expect from the James Wade of years gone by. But he’s been a hard man to break this tournament, doing enough on his throw to make life difficult for his opponents. Plus, he’s shown a fight when things aren’t going his way, which is something that a lot of players (Painter, Barney, Baxter etc) have a tendency to do. But Wade is going to have to start taking out the big finishes, as his 101 last night won’t be enough to get the job done – he’ll need to be taking out 140+ to stand a chance, because he’ll be quite a bit behind in the scoring department. And with Wade’s highest being a 130, it’s definitely going to be difficult.
Michael van Gerwen averaged 102.73 in his win over Adrian Lewis last night. The only thing he needed to do better is hitting the doubles. He only hit 30%, but still managed to get through. If he’s to win the World Championship, he’s going to have to up that to 40% or 50%. There’s no doubt his maximum scoring is in full flow, as he hit 15 last night, taking his tournament total to 34. His tournament average is now 98.62, the second highest of the four men left in the tournament, and he’s averaged over 100 in two of his four matches, which is an impressive feat.
So it’s down to this for both men, with one playing the darts of his life, the other playing average darts, but fighting enough to get the wins. The thing that Wade needs to do is up his scoring and hit some big finishes, and while he might be able to put some bigger finishes together, his scoring doesn’t look like it’s going to improve much, as he’s only managed a 92.89. He needs to up that by around 7 points just to get close to Michael van Gerwen on his throw, and also to avoid having his throw broken. I like Van Gerwen on all markets – Highest Checkout, Most 180s, Winner, Handicap, but there’s not value in all of them. The highest checkout market looks good, because we know he’s capable of it, and although he hasn’t HAD to do it in this tournament, he might just need to to get over the line as soon as possible. While the usual 180s market isn’t appealing (Van Gerwen at 1/4), 888 are doing a handicap line on the 180s, which is -3.5, and with Van Gerwen hitting 15 last night, and Wade 5 over 9 sets, it looks like a good market for us to be getting involved in.
Michael van Gerwen to score the highest checkout Vs James Wade: 4/5 @
Recommend: 3 units.
Michael van Gerwen -3.5 to score more 180s than James Wade: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 3 units.
Phil Taylor (1) Vs Raymond van Barneveld (13).
I’m not sure what’s left to say about this rivalry. They’ve done it all against each other, and it’s a shame we’re getting this as a semi-final and not the finale to an epic tournament. Although I think we might just be seeing this a lot more over the next 12 months if Barney’s return to form is anything to go by.
It’s been a strange World Championship by Phil Taylor’s lofty standards. Out of the four players left, he’s got the second lowest average, and scored the least 180s, but he’s only dropped 9 legs and 1 set all tournament, so he’s obviously doing something right. His tournament average of 95.68 was boost, in no part, thanks to his 101.38 against Andy Hamilton in the quarter-final. The big thing has been Taylor’s finishing, and his 55% against Andy Hamilton is what made his win so convincing against The Hammer. If he can keep his scoring consistent, and hit 55% of his doubles, he’s going to be a hard man to beat.
Raymond van Barneveld has finished up 2012 how he would hope. He’s won the Grand Slam of Darts and is coming into the World Championship semi-final with the highest tournament average, and 25 180s. Like Taylor, Barney is looking imposing on the oche. He’s only dropped 2 sets, on against Brendan Dolan and one against Simon Whitlock. And he’s only dropped 21 legs, so he’s doing everything right. Unlike Taylor, Barney’s doubling is what has been a bit of a concern. He was outstanding against Whitlock, but he as pretty woeful against Anderson. He’ll need to keep around 50% if he wants to keep up with Taylor, and his 52% against Whitlock was a sign that he’s more than capable.
This is a battle of the behemoths. Between them, they’ve dropped 3 sets and they played unbelievable in their quarter-finals, both averaging over 100, with Barney averaging a point more than Taylor. I think they’re going to go back and forth here, and I can see at least 10 sets, if not the full 11. The line for the match is 9.5 sets, which I think looks good value. I also think we’ll be seeing a lot of 180s from Raymond van Barneveld. He put in 9 over 6 sets against Whitlock, and if we can get 10 sets or more, we’re looking easily at double figures. Barney’s averaging 1.4 180s a set, so 10 sets would give us 14. Even 9 sets would give us 12-13, which is more than enough to get us over the 11.5 line, as long as Barney brings the same intensity he’s brought for the rest of the tournament.
Raymond van Barneveld to score over 11.5 180s: 5/6 @
Recommend: 3 units.
Over 9.5 sets in Taylor Vs Van Barneveld match: 11/10 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 3 units.
That’s it for the final semi-final matches of the PDC 2013 World Championship. One match to go, and it’ll be done for another year. Thank you for subscribing, old subscribers and new, and enjoy the darts!