September 17th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

We’re entering the home stretch of the MLB season and the American League is about all wrapped up. The Athletics have a big lead on the Rays and Mariners for the second Wild Card while they sit 4.5 games back of the Astros, a deficit they are unlikely to make up. The only real battle in the AL is for the Wild Card seeding which currently sees the Athletics a game and a half back.

The National League is a bit more contentious at the moment. The Brewers are 2.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and the Dodgers are just 0.5 games back of the Rockies in the NL West. The Brewers are the Wild Card leader right now while the Dodgers are tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card with the Diamondbacks at four games back of them. A tied Wild Card would be really fun as we’d have a play-in game for the play-in game.

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

I am assuming this one is going to play, but there is some raining in the area that could stop that from happening. I like the over here if it does play though and I hope that it does. It’s humid out there with the winds blowing out to left which will be a big bump for the bats.

Jake Arrieta is not finishing the season with a bang. He’s been slightly worse in his home starts and has allowed 3 or more runs in his past four starts and five of his past six. He’s not in a good way and the Mets have been hot at the plate of late with a 117 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Mets have really underplayed their Pythagorean record this season and are surprisingly competent on offense.

I am a bit more worried about the Phils offense doing their part as Zack Wheeler has been hot with a 3.23 ERA/3.18 FIP on the year. The Phillies have been hitting the ball better of late with a 103 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I am thinking the humidity helps us out in this regard.

Bet Phillies/Mets Over 7.5 Runs

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

The Rays are absolutely on fire right now and have been one of the best teams in baseball over the second half of the season. They are 28-13 since the start of August and draw a nice match-up here against the Rangers.

Adrian Sampson has only made two appearances this year, but they weren’t that great and he pegs as a 5-ish ERA/FIP guy. This Rays offense is so hot right now, they have a 124 wRC+ over the past fourteen days. It could be a long (or rather, an early one) for Sampson today.

Tyler Glasnow has been great since coming to the Rays in the Chris Archer trade and he’ll be fully backed up by his bullpen that has been great all year. The ballpark might see them give up some runs more than usual, but I am still more than willing to lay the runs here. Fun fact: the Rays have the best runline record in the league at 85-63.

Bet Rays -1.5 (+105)

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