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Two MLB System tips for September 18th, 2021.
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MLB Betting Tips:
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 78 | 108 | 128 | 58 | 106 | 25 | 136 | 24 |
| NYM | 88 | 106 | 92 | 96 | 16 | 119 | 5 | |
| Carlos Carrasco | 105 | 133 | 95 | 68 | 99 | 12 | 130 | 23 |
| PHI | 98 | 103 | 102 | 95 | 17 | 105 | 12 |
The System has been really down on the Mets, but they have been running into some great starters of late. Aaron Nola is a great starter. He’s been a bit unlucky, but he has a 4.58 ERA/3.41 FIP with a great strikeout rate. The Mets offense is prone to strikeouts and are below average against righties.
Carlos Carrasco has been up in down in his return from injury. He’s had some truly awful starts and some decent ones. He’s allowed at least two runs in six of his past seven starts. I’m just not sure I trust him and I think I do trust Nola to do well here.
Pick: Bet Phillies First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -128 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/18 11:10:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 96 | 132 | 123 | 66 | 94 | 7 | 136 | 24 |
| STL | 93 | 100 | 88 | 93 | 20 | 100 | 17 | |
| Adam Wainwright | 84 | 70 | 94 | 68 | 99 | 12 | 75 | 3 |
| SDP | 93 | 98 | 108 | 98 | 14 | 82 | 24 |
Very weird to see Adam Wainwright with better season numbers than Yu Darvish, but here we are.
This is pretty much the same story as yesterday. The Padres bullpen has been a disaster of late and they have the advantage in starter. The Padres offense has been quiet of late as well.
When you throw in Yu Darvish’s struggles on the road, a 5.57 FIP, and this looks like another easy pick for the Cardinals.
Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/18 11:10:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
College Football Betting Tips:
Fresno State at UCLA Betting Tips:
This looks like another outstanding spot to grab the over.
Fresno State has two games scoring 45+ points and their lowest scoring game of the season, a loss, saw them put up 24 against Oregon. This is a good offense and they are not afraid to go for it.
UCLA has come out of the gates firing as well. They scored 44 in their first victory against Hawaii and then came back with 38 against LSU.
I trust both of these offenses to put up points today and neither defense looks like it will be able to do much about it.
Pick: Bet UCLA/Fresno State Over 63.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.90 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/18 11:10:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
