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A 3-1 record last night wraps up a strong end to August.
We were 8-2 after the players returned from their boycott of games and look to be getting back on track. The Bet MLB System is 49-36 on the year for +2.62 units. So we’re making money, but I think we should be doing better and we will do better as the sample sizes get larger.
We took the over on the Yankees/Rays despite the great pitching match-up. We got some help early as the Yankees scored three off Gerrit Cole in the first two innings. They would add one more off him before sending him to the showers and then another off the bullpen. That put us at 5-0 and we needed some help which the Yankees then provided in the 7th and 8th inning. It was close, but 8 is more than 7.5 and that is all that matters.
The Braves looked strong against the Red Sox. We laid the -1.5 here and the Braves got the job done for us. They scored five runs off Colten Brewer and Max Fried had another solid start as the Braves won 6-3.
The Padres were our last win of the night as we loved the offense and the Rockies offense has really been slumping. Well, the Padres won 6-0. A shutout at Coors Field should count as double.
Our lone loss was, of course, the game that we went two units on. We took the White Sox 5-inning line behind an expected strong start from Lucas Giolito. This one hurt because a two-run error lead to the Twins getting an early 4-0 lead which took the 5-inning bet out of play. The White Sox then came back and won in the ninth inning.
Still, a great night and I’m excited for what September brings. Let’s start it off right.
Best Odds for MLB:
|Type of Bet / Prop:||Where To Bet:|
|R + H + E||BetOnline|
|MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day)||Bovada|
|World Series Futures||SportsBetting.ag|
|5 Inning Run Lines||BetOnline|
|1st Inning Moneylines||Bovada|
|Total Team Runs Over/Under||Bovada|
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
Indians: Zach Plesac 1.29 ERA/2.37 FIP
Royals: Matt Harvey 11.12 ERA/7.72 FIP
I don’t need to say much to explain this pick. Just look at those numbers! Plesac has had a great start to the year while Harvey has been a dumpster fire. Is Plesac this good? Is Harvey this bad? Probably no to both, but I think it is going to play out exactly how it looks with these numbers early.
The Indians offense has been heating up of late and this is a great match-up for them to keep that going.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
White Sox: Dallas Keuchel 2.70 ERA/3.23 FIP
Twins: Michael Pineda 4.01 ERA/4.02 FIP (2019)
This will be Pineda’s first start of the year and he’s facing a red hot offense. I don’t see that ending well for him. He’s a solid pitcher, but even just a little rust will be exploited by the Sox here.
Dallas Keuchel has been a groundball machine and he faces a Twins offense that has just a 78 wRC+ against lefties this season. The Twins are a high contact team so he should be able to induce some groundballs here and have some success.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
Giants: Kevin Gausman 4.54 ERA/3.30 FIP
Rockies: Jon Gray 5.45 ERA/4.48 FIP
I was surprised to see the Rockies as a favorite here. As I mentioned yesterday their offense has fallen off a cliff of late and they are coming off getting shutout. Gausman is a solid pitcher and the Rockies have just a 78 wRC+ against righties on the season.
I like Gray, but Gausman is having the better season than him and the Giants offense is hitting really well right now. They have a 120 wRC+ over the past two weeks and I think they can continue their hot hitting here.
Bet the underdog!