September 25th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Five MLB System tips for September 25th, 2021.

A 2-2 record last night.

MLB Betting Tips:

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Rich Hill 105 95 97 90 101 17 117 21
MIL   96 107 105 93 19 81 25
Corbin Burnes 37 28 152 58 100 14 80 5
NYM   89 106 93 97 13 110 10

Corbin Burnes in the first five innings. Need I say more?

Burnes’ numbers almost seem fake. A 2.34 ERA/1.58 FIP on the season with a 12.59 K/9 rate. This guy is unhittable. He’s pitching at home here against an average team against righties. He should do well.

Rich Hill has been solid this year, but he’s been worse on the road. The Brewers offense isn’t in a good place right now, but like I always say with Burnes starts: they only need one.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -138 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.72 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Robbie Ray 81 111 142 74 102 19 146 30
MIN   107 100 103 100 11 105 14
John Gant 113 63 83 167 104 22 83 8
TOR   116 88 98 114 2 125 4

Robbie Ray has been very good this season with a 2.72 ERA/3.41 FIP. The Twins offense has struggled against lefties with a 96 wRC+.

This tip is all about the Jays offense though. They struggled last night, but I like their match-up against John Gant. They have a 113 wRC+ on the season while Gant has a 3.76 ERA/4.69 FIP with a terrible walk rate. This is not the kind of offense you want to rack up the walks against.

Pick: Bet Jays -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -130 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Huascar Ynoa 85 90 115 79 96 9 93 10
SDP   92 97 106 97 13 93 20
Vince Velasquez 131 161 102 135 97 10 118 23
ATL   111 106 100 98 12 100 17

Vince Velasquez has been very good to us of late, giving up a ton of homeruns in his starts. He faces a Braves offense today that hits the long ball very well.

Ynoa has a 3.43 ERA/3.56 FIP on the season so he’s perfectly serviceable. The Padres offense has struggled a bit of late with a 93 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They have a 98 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Pick: Bet Braves First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lance Lynn 74 76 120 86 86 1 70 2
CLE   101 102 93 93 19 85 23
Eli Morgan 124 162 94 73 100 14 111 19
CHW   97 100 113 109 3 118 6

The White Sox offense and their best starter against the Indians offense and one of their worst starters. Easy money.

Eli Morgan has a 5.68 ERA/5.26 FIP on the season. He faces the Sox who have a 107 wRC+ against righties on the year. They have a 118 wRC+ over the past two weeks so they are in good form.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -128 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Anthony DeSclafani 91 88 98 72 93 7 105 14
COL   98 100 90 82 29 90 21
Jon Gray 89 84 103 109 105 23 109 17
SFG   114 107 106 108 4 130 2

I like Jon Gray, but this Giants offense at this ballpark is too good to pass up. The Giants have a 110 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I don’t think that number is coming down tonight.

Anthony DeSclafani draws a nice match-up here as the Rockies have just a 77 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Pick: Bet Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -113 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.88 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/25 10:29:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

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