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A 1-2 record last night.
The Cubs showed up big for us with a 10-0 win over the White Sox. Yu Darvish had a fantastic start and the Cubs offense actually showed some life for once as they tagged Dylan Cease for five runs in just 4.2 innings of work.
Cleveland won their game against Pittsburgh late, but failed to cover the spread for us. Despite getting an early 1-0 lead they were no-hit until the seventh inning. This is despite Mitch Keller throwing eight walks(!) in just five innings. The opportunities were plentiful, but he got very lucky on this day.
The Yankees and Marlins had a quiet day and failed to reach the over for us.
We’re getting down to the nitty gritty here. A lot of teams have been eliminated and a few are fighting for their playoff lives. I’m trying to keep the tips to teams with something to play for just because we’re not sure what we’re going to get lineup wise going forward.
Three tips today.
Best Odds for MLB:
| Type of Bet / Prop: | Where To Bet: |
|---|---|
| R + H + E | BetOnline |
| MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) | Bovada |
| World Series Futures | SportsBetting.ag |
| 5 Inning Run Lines | BetOnline |
| 1st Inning Moneylines | Bovada |
| Total Team Runs Over/Under | Bovada |
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
Cubs: Jon Lester 4.40 ERA/4.97 FIP
White Sox: Dane Dunning 3.19 ERA/3.37 FIP
Lester’s worst start of the year was when he allowed eight runs against the White Sox. He is just the perfect pitcher to their offense. He doesn’t strike anybody out and he relies on contact. The White Sox strike out a ton and rely on contact. This could be a big offensive day for the Sox.
The Cubs offense is not actually all that great, despite last night. Dunning has some big strikeout numbers and the White Sox are fighting for the division with the Twins and Indians right now. They should be motivated to get back on track here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
Pirates: Joe Musgrove 4.68 ERA/3.97 FIP
Indians: Aaron Civale 3.99 ERA/3.62 FIP
The results weren’t there for us yesterday, but the Pirates are the worst team in baseball against righties. They have just a .594 OPS against righties and I can’t imagine betting on them to win here. Civale has been feast or famine this year, but he looks like a feast tonight. He’ll be on a pitch count so we are going with the five inning here.
Musgrove is decent, but his offense will do him no favors today and the heart of the Indians offense remains dangerous.
Bet Indians -0.5 First Five Innings (-115)
Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
Reds: Luis Castillo 2.86 ERA/2.72 FIP
Twins: Michael Pineda 3.18 ERA/1.99 FIP
I really like both of these pitchers, but the system has them playing to a draw basically. The difference is that the Twins offense is much better than the Reds and their bullpen is much better too.
It’s a small sample on Pineda, but he’s been better at home this year.
The Twins have a 110 wRC+ against righties which should make for a tough time for Castillo. This is the toughest offense that he has faced all season as he’s had the good fortune of having no starts against the Twins or White Sox this year.
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