September 29th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for September 29th, 2021.

A 1-3 record last night. The lesson: don’t bet on eliminated teams like the Cubs.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Gerrit Cole 64 86 148 66 87 2 62 1
TOR   116 88 98 114 2 78 23
Jose Berrios 84 81 110 69 103 19 118 25
NYY   99 106 122 101 9 130 3

I was a bit surprised to see the Yankees weren’t a bigger favorite here. They’ve played four games against their Wild Card rivals, the Red Sox and Jays, and won them all so far. The offense is absolutely on fire with a 130 wRC+ over the past two weeks and the bullpen is lights out right now.

Berrios has been decent, but this is a tough match-up and the offense behind him has struggled of late with a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The bullpen has been a mess all season and hasn’t gotten better. The Yanks should take this one with Cole on the mound.

Pick: Bet Yankees Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.94 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Sonny Gray 84 93 117 93 103 19 63 2
CHW   97 100 113 109 3 115 7
Carlos Rodon 60 71 152 77 86 1 76 3
CIN   104 105 96 97 13 116 6

The White Sox are a pretty big favorite here overall, but the five inning line is a lot closer. It looks like a great value to lay the -0.5 here.

Carlos Rodon has been fantastic this season with a 2.47 ERA/2.63 FIP. He faces a Reds offense that simply cannot hit left-handed pitching. They have just a 81 wRC+ against southpaws on the season. Rodon has been much better in his home starts as well.

The White Sox face Sonny Gray who has done well this season, but they also crush right handed pitching. They have a 107 wRC+ against righties on the year.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: at -107 BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.93 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Adrian Houser 102 64 77 121 100 16 83 7
STL   95 100 87 95 16 133 2
Miles Mikolas 110 94 64 70 97 10 90 11
MIL   96 107 105 93 19 70 30

The Cardinals are now at 17 straight wins. That’s quite the streak. I don’t think I’ve been on any of the 17 games because the Cardinals season long numbers are just not all that impressive and neither is their pitching staff. The System likes them a bit more than the sportsbook today, so I figured, why not?

The offense is on fire. The Brewers offense is cold. Let’s go for 18.

Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.91 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Frankie Montas 81 76 115 86 103 19 107 23
SEA   93 110 106 93 19 103 16
Logan Gilbert 85 97 114 59 89 4 108 24
OAK   100 96 106 103 8 102 17

I feel like Bay Area rapper Mac Andre making this pick: stupid doo-doo dumb.

I feel that way because the Mariners just keep doing it and are now just 0.5 games back of the Wild Card. They have been on fire of late and have absolutely owned the Athletics during that stretch. I really want them to win that Wild Card too, but you have to trust the System. This isn’t betting with your heart, it’s betting with statistics.

The Cardinals at least have a 133 wRC+ over the past two weeks of their run. The Mariners are just playing like a slightly above average team. It doesn’t make sense.

So, skip this one if you want to, but the System says that the Athletics should win this one. They have the better starter and the better offense against right handed pitching.

Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -107 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.93 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/29 11:41:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

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