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Four MLB System tips for September 28th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Mills | 103 | 94 | 74 | 71 | 106 | 26 | 125 | 27 |
| PIT | 75 | 98 | 95 | 82 | 29 | 79 | 21 | |
| Mitch Keller | 102 | 79 | 86 | 117 | 106 | 26 | 134 | 29 |
| CHC | 101 | 121 | 89 | 91 | 24 | 115 | 7 |
These two starters are almost even with very similar stats across the board. Their bullpens are about the same as well with a 106 FIP- on the season.
However, I think the Cubs offense looks to be much better. They have a higher wRC+ on the season, both overall and against right handed pitching, and they are hot of late with a 115 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Pirates offense has very lightly power while the Cubs are a very good homerun hitting team.
Don’t feel great about this because these teams stink and have nothing to play for, but it looks like a great value.
Pick: Bet Cubs Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -106 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.9 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/28 11:03:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 60 | 57 | 125 | 62 | 108 | 28 | 123 | 26 |
| ATL | 111 | 106 | 100 | 98 | 12 | 100 | 18 | |
| Charlie Morton | 78 | 67 | 121 | 88 | 97 | 10 | 86 | 8 |
| PHI | 99 | 102 | 102 | 95 | 16 | 109 | 11 |
The Phillies are still in this thing at 2.5 games behind the Braves. This series will be huge for them.
I don’t trust their bullpen at all, but I do think that Zack Wheeler will cotninue his fantastic season with a great start here. He has a 2.79 ERA/2.62 FIP and looks like a great F5 bet.
Charlie Morton is having a nice season as well with a 3.53 ERA/3.28 FIP. He has been a bit worse in his home starts this season and he faces a Phillies offense that is hot of late with a 109 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Phillies First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -110 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.9 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/28 11:03:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 108 | 131 | 94 | 71 | 117 | 30 | 128 | 28 |
| SFG | 114 | 107 | 106 | 108 | 4 | 121 | 4 | |
| Logan Webb | 69 | 49 | 112 | 70 | 93 | 7 | 101 | 21 |
| ARI | 85 | 107 | 96 | 84 | 27 | 74 | 27 |
The Giants have been the best team in the National League this season, but they need to keep their foot on the gas the rest of the way as the Dodgers are right on their tail for the division crown.
Logan Webb has been fantastic with a 3.04 ERA/2.81 FIP. He draws a great match-up as the Diamondbacks have just a 79 wRC+ against righties on the season and they don’t have much to play for here.
Luke Weaver is very hittable and has been awful on the road this year. The bullpen behind him isn’t much better with a 117 FIP- on the season. The Giants offense is as good as they come and should put up the runs to cover here.
Pick: Bet Giants -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -133 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.75 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/28 11:03:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 79 | 68 | 110 | 68 | 103 | 19 | 107 | 23 |
| SEA | 93 | 110 | 106 | 93 | 19 | 103 | 16 | |
| Tyler Anderson | 98 | 109 | 86 | 60 | 89 | 4 | 108 | 24 |
| OAK | 100 | 96 | 106 | 103 | 8 | 102 | 17 |
The Mariners keep winning and are now just 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. It’s great to see, but it honestly doesn’t make any sense. They have a -52 run differential on the season and what they are doing just doesn’t make a ton of sense.
I think things might turn for them tonight with a tough match-up against the Athletics. Chris Bassitt is having a great season with a 3.16 ERA/3.29 FIP. The Mariners have just a 94 wRC+ against lefties on the year.
Tyler Anderson is about an average pitcher. He’s facing an Athletics offense that has a 104 wRC+ against lefties on the year.
Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -125 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.82 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/28 11:03:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
