September 7th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

A full Friday slate of games today and thank MLB for that. It killed me yesterday having nothing to watch, nothing to sweat and nothing on the line.

That all changes today though as there are quite a few games that I am interested in here. The last couple of weeks have all been one game here, one game there. Tonight is a different story though as the system likes quite a few games. Let’s get right into them.

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Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

The Pirates are a heavy favorite here and it’s easy to see why. Dan Straily has a 4.13 ERA/5.14 FIP on the year with an even worse 4.31/5.55 on the road. He’s been very hittable this season and I like the Pirates to score quite a few runs off of him today.

The Marlins have been one of the weaker hitting teams this year, but they have done better of late and have hit better on the road all season. Chris Archer is a solid pitcher, but I don’t quite trust him yet. This is only his third start in Pittsburgh and the other two didn’t go great. He’s not put together back-to-back good starts in quite some time. I think he’s good for a couple and this is an easy over.

Bet Marlins/Pirates Over 7.5 Runs

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

I really like the Rays here as this one checks a lot of my favorite boxes. You have a great left handed pitcher in Blake Snell, going against a team that has been absolutely terrible against lefties all year with a 77 wRC+. They are out of it, traded away most of their team and are just playing out the string.

The Rays have been hot. They are hitting for a 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks and have hit righties well this year. Dylan Bundy’s runs allowed in his last five starts are: 7, 7, 7, 4 and 3. Yeah, I like the Rays a lot here. Lay the runs.

Bet Rays -1.5 (120)

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

This one is a bit more recency bias and feel than I usually go with, but I’m feeling really good about the Brewers in this one. They have a 125 wRC+ over the past two weeks and are going against a Giants team that has been ice cold at the plate.

I’ve been messing around with a version of the system which is basically “Who’s hot?” It’s all starters and recency bias. Most of the games came up pretty similar to the posted lines and what I went with above, but this one really stood out. The Giants are ice cold, the Brewers are red hot and the starters are about equal.

Based on what the system spit out, I could lay the runs here but I am still testing this so I am only going to go with the moneyline here. It’s a bit higher than I normally go for, but I really love this match-up.

Bet Brewers -160

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