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Well it was an 0-2 day for -0.75u loss in the Serie A yesterday, unfortunately.
We had BTTS on Inter Milan vs Torino. That one was a dull first half and opened up in the second half. Only Inter scored. Torino had a total of 9 shots with 7 shots on target. One of those where variance and just a cautious first half really cost us.
Had taken a risk on Sampdoria or Draw for 0.25u and almost got away with it! Milan went down to 10 men and a Sampdoria team, who had been attacking a lot of the game, tied it up. Alas with 23 minutes left, Milan got a penalty which they scored. Sampdoria had some good chances but just couldn’t get the ball over the line again.
It is what it is. It was nice sitting here watching a couple of Serie A games back to back. Hoping to watch some Sunday but with F1 in the morning the NFL – ah we’ll see how much I can watch.
Six Serie A games on Sunday let’s go through them. Confidence levels for soccer are normally 0,5u, 1u and 2u although I’m easing my way back into them after a few months of not doing them at all, so very small bets.
Atalanta vs Cremonese:
Atalanta have been practically perfect to start the season. Cremonese picked up their first point last time out at home to Sassuolo. Atalanta haven’t really had the toughest start to the season but they have looked solid in each game. Nice thing is actually seeing the goals coming in for them.
Cremonese are a bit hard to judge. They have been unfortunate at times. But their defense from what I’ve seen has been quite poor. I like Atalanta to do a professional job in this game. 0.5u on Atalanta -1 at 1.83 odds. (Atalanta must win by at least 2). Muriel will hopefully make an appearance at some point, and Hojlund stepped up on Monday and I think can continue that.
Bologna vs Fiorentina:
Fiorentina are slight favourites at 2.45 odds in this one despite being away. Bologna have been draw specialists this season. When I look at something like this where both teams have racked up the draws, I just have to look at the odds and determine if it’s worth the play or not.
3.40 is the price. The problem is Mihajlovic left and a manager change always messes things up. Fiorentina will probably make some changes in the side due to Europe, and yeah just too many question marks for me for this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bologna sneak this one but depends how Vigiani lines up.
Lecce vs Monza:
These two came up from Serie B last season, and are yet to pick up a win in Serie A. Looking at the advanced metrics, Lecce have performed better although a slightly easier schedule.
Sassuolo vs Udinese:
A very small play of 0.25u on Udinese to win at 2.60 odds.
I wasn’t going to bet this one initially but I worry Sassuolo won’t have the firepower to keep up with Udinese, especially with Beradi out. Then the odds for Udinese convinced me.
Lazio vs Verona:
Lazio coming off their first loss, Verona their first win. Lazio coming off the big midweek win which was nice. The odds on Lazio to win are too short though and I’m not seeing any other options, especially with Lazio likely to make a few changes.
Juventus vs Salernitana:
Juventus are unbeaten to start the season. Very heavy favourites here. When they win, it’s been convincing so far. Have to think they will be wanting to punish Salernita after their loss to PSG.
The concern of course is the rotation of the squad as Europe is more important than ever.