World Cup Betting Tips: November 30th, 2022

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A 3-1 day again. Brings the record to 19-17, (+1.48u with flat 1u bets).

In the early games, went 1-1. Won the 2.62 play of Cody Gakbo to score for the Netherlands which was nice. Just seemed the right play to make. I really wasn’t impressed with the Netherlands in that one and haven’t been for the last two games.

Lost with Ecuador to beat Senegal. No problems with that loss. Ecuador didn’t deserve to win, and it was a clear penalty as well. I’m not sure what happened to Ecuador but that was an absolutely torrid perormance. I wonder if the fact that they could win or draw affected them mentally, as they just didn’t look like they had any sort of game plan.

Won with England -1. I was sweating that one a bit as it was like Wales didn’t realize they had to win. Very negative performance from them initially, and they deservedly went out and got thumped.

That USA vs Iran game was a right sweat, but luckily the Americans were able to hold on. I think that parking the bus so early was a big mistake from them honestly, and they’re extremely lucky Iran couldn’t capitalize.

As a reminder and for new users – I assign a confidence on each pick I make which is 0.5/1/2. Just how I generally feel about a pick.

Funny as when USA parked the bus, I really thought Iran would score. At around the 87th min mark, I went in to place a small bet on Iran or Draw, and realized that I had bet a lot more on USA to win than I normally bet. Not sure if it was a mistake or what – I placed my bets yesterday afternoon but don’t evem remember placing them quite honestly. I’ve never hit a cashout button so fast in my life!

Group C Betting Tips:

Poland play Argentina while Saudi Arabia play Mexico. Mexico can still go through if they give Saudi Arabia a pounding. Saudi Arabia can go through with a draw if Poland win but you have to assume they’re going to shoot for the win.

Poland are in that bad spot of a win or draw working for them, which I feel can make things tricky as you never know whether to go for it or not. A draw for Argentina might work too but you know they’re gonna be pushing to win.

There wasn’t many shots in the Argentina vs Mexico game, that was for sure. Mexico did well and restraining them but it was just one minor mistake and boom, Messi works his magic.

So Mexico put up a solid defensive performance against Argentina. Poland have looked good defensively too so have to wonder if Argentina can break them down. Also have to wonder how the Argentina defense will be overall. Once they scored against Mexico they settled into a 5-3-1-1.

I think one thing we learned is Saudi Arabia really struggle in regard to build-up play. However that bodes well for them against Mexico who need to push and push hard.

I actually tactically thought they were very sound against Poland as well. Just more a difference in quality. I quite like Saudi Arabia, and Mexico haven’t impressed me too much offensively so far. I can’t take the goals market for this one because

I’m going with 1u confidence on Saudi Arabia draw no bet at 3.50 odds. I’m not sure how this game will go so I am hesitant to touch anything with the goals market. I’m a bit concerned about the Saudi’s chance conversion and both teams with stout defenses. Either way this has the potential to be a good game.

As for the other game? Really haven’t been impressed with Argentina that’s for sure. I’m actually going to bet a bet that I really dig, is a bit different, and is only available on the Patreon. This is a fun bet and I think it could be a good little winner at over 3.00 odds!

Group D Betting Tips:

France have already qualified, and now they play Tunisia in the last match. Tunisia need to win, and hope Australia vs Denmark is a draw. If Denmark win, Tunisia need to have a better GD.

Australia need to draw and hope France draw or win, while Denmarks is quite bloody simple – win.

One thing Denmark will be happy with is Australia, despite 2 goals, have an xG of 0.9 over their two games so far. Denmark started very slow and cautious against France but I expect different against Australia.

I’m a tad concerned about the goals market in this one, simply because Australia aren’t a team you have a ton of confidence in scoring. So it puts me off like BTTS for example. But in saying that, the Aussie lads do seem to be able to find a way to find the net.

End of the day though – you have one team in Denmark who absolutely need a win. All it takes is one goal to really get things going in this game, and I’m going to go with 1u on Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 odds.

The France play is a bit trickier as with them qualified, you don’t know how they will line up. I was extremely disappointed in the Tunisian offense in that last game though, and France just look spectacular. I’m going to do 1 on France -1 at 2.10 odds. I was tempted by France to win to nil but at 2.20 that’s a risk and with Tunisia having to push up hard here, you gotta think no matter who lines up for France, they can punish them.

Fascinating reading all the tactical analysis and looking back at France/Denmark and just how big a player Mbappe was. Nice to see and hopefully he can keep going and win me my Top Team Goalscorer bet!