(WC2014) Netherlands vs Mexico Betting Tips

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Netherlands vs Mexico kickstarts the World Cup knockout rounds, with this game being played at 12pm EST on June 29th, 2014.

This is an early kick off game, with Costa Rica vs Greece later in the day. The winners of Netherlands vs Mexico will take on the winners of Costa Rica vs Greece in the quarter finals which gives either team a tremendous chance of making the semi-finals.

The Netherlands got here by winning all three of their group games. In what was arguably the toughest group of all, they easily displaced their most difficult opposition in Chile and Spain. Surprisingly, their toughest game was probably Australia. They just could not cope with Tim Cahill.

Mexico came to life in their last game. They squeaked a 1-0 victory out over Cameroon – although to be fair, it probably should have been more. Mexico dominated possession that game, and were very careful with their shots taking 9 shots, 5 of which were on target. Against Brazil however they were on “shoot on sight” mode, with 3 shots hitting the target out of 13. They did great defensively there though, to draw 0-0. Then they came to life with a 3-1 victory over Croatia to ruin any dreams the Croatians had of making the knockout stages.

What We’ve Learned:

The Netherlands: We’ve learned a LOT. Holland are incredibly flexible dependent on their opposition, and can play in a wide variety of setups. Against Chile for example they practically had 5 defenders at the back. That worked out well though as they were able to relax and counter against Chile. And with players like Robben available – yeah, that’s going to work out well. And it’s amazing to watch them – they are able to punish their opponents time and time again. For example against Australia they knew the full backs would push up to deliver in some deep crosses – so they abused that by setting up RVP and Robben in those channels.

Mexico: Against Cameroon, we saw the wing backs cause a lot of issues as expected. Cameroon just didn’t know how to handle the wing backs – something that shouldn’t affect the Dutch. However Mexico held back the wing backs when it came to Brazil, knowing they had to tighten up defensively and they did so. It was different against Croatia though – with the Croatians handling it well, and Mexico having to pull back their wing backs. Mexico took advantage of the Croatians needing to attack, worked on the counter and it went perfect for them there. Croatia switching to a 3 man defense was just disastrous.

Holland vs Mexico Betting Odds:

Holland To Win: 11/10
Draw: 5/2
Mexico To Win: 14/5
Over 2.5 Goals: 11/10
Under 2.5 Goals: 7/10

The best odds for Holland vs Mexico.

Holland vs Mexico Betting Tips:

With that price, we have to go with the Dutch as the winners here.

They’ve just looked so solid everywhere. Tactically they look great, and no matter the style of play or the opposition, they’re able to control them. Yes – they conceded twice against Australia but I kept saying Cahill will cause problems, and I made a ton of money betting on him to score. He is a special player that Mexico just don’t have.

Chile focus on the wing backs, much like Mexico and Holland dealt with them easily enough. Robin Van Persie will be back too which is what the Dutch need – a big striker like that. Chile had to push to try and get the win over Holland, and that was when the Dutch were able to take advantage. Mexico won’t have to push unless they go down a goal.

Having seen the Dutch play countless times, I think the over/under is best to be avoided. It’s the type of game where Holland can play patiently and get the 1-0 win, and the odds just aren’t worth it.

Bet Holland to win, 11/10.

Holland vs Mexico Betting Props:

Having seen that backline against Chile, I like the Dutch to keep a clean sheet here. I’d look at betting either Holland 1-0 or 2-0. 11/2 for 1-0, 17/2 for 2-0. Both great prices.