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I’m feeling quite good about the challenge after yesterday. As the games go on, I’m beginning to get a bit more comfortable and adapt well, and I’m looking forward to much bigger bets come the second round of games.
Me and the guys have already worked with the computer simulation and updated it a bit to reflect the most recent games, and are very comfortable for matches like Spain vs Chile and so on.
Yesterday we went 2-1 with my two “sure thing” bets coming up trumps – although it WAS squeaky bum time a little bit!
Switzerland to win was the first bet, and with 11/8 odds on that it was a tight one but they deservedly got the win in the end.
The other bet that won was France-France, which was France leading at half time and then full time. Another one where it was tight but they deservedly got the first half goal. And boy was that a laugh over the second goal and the idiots who thought it wasn’t a goal. That was amazing.
We lost on our underdog bet of Bosnia Draw No Bet. I unfortunately meant to bet just $50 on that at 6/1 but bet $100 instead – oh well. Despite the loss, that was clearly a bet just dripping in value. Bosnia looked excellent as predicted, and if not for an unlucky own goal who knows how that game would have went. Either way – felt very happy despite losing that one.
Current balance is $2,287.50 although if you are new to reading this – I started with $5,000 but I have most of it on Top Team Goalscorer bets from Day 1. They will be paying out later. I actually have $2600 on those so we’re down $112.50 or basically 1 unit. Not bad at all considering one of the losses was a bet I made by mistake.
So okay we have June 16th, 2014 and 3 games. Let’s see if we can get in the green – wagers outstanding:
Germany vs Portugal: Prior to the World Cup, over 2.5 goals was the right price and our official tip at 6/5 odds. It’s now at 4/5 odds though and that’s not as pretty. Our other recommendation was Both Teams to Score – a bet that’s dropped to 8/13 odds. Honestly – if you want value, both of those are fine. I’m in a betting challenge so I’m going to be taking a risk and looking at slightly riskier bets. I’m going with Over 2.5 & Yes for both of those – so there will be at least 3 goals, with BTTS. 21/20 and $100 on that.
Ghana vs USA: This is an interesting one. I personally don’t rate the USA – but I do like Klinsmann, and who knows what tricks he may have up his sleeve. The Donovan decision was one he had to have made with a plan in mind – so it’ll be interesting to see what he is going with. I’m going with a bigger bet on this one – $200 on Over 2.5 goals at 21/20
Iran vs Nigeria: Not feeling too strongly about this one. $50 on Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 odds, and a tiny $10 a t9/1 odds on Draw 0-0/Nigeria 1-0 for half-time full-time. Watch this be a 7 goal thriller now.