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When it comes to betting on soccer, just like most sports, I like to create mathematical systems to assist me in betting.
Some of them can be quite complicated while others are relatively simple – such as the BTTS System I’m about to talk about.
BTTS means “Both Teams To Score” and the question I’m looking to answer is whether to bet “Yes – Both Teams Will Score” or “No – Both Teams Won’t Score”.
I create systems like this purely to take the emotion out of betting. I’ve been placing bets since the late 80s – I’ve made way too many emotional bets in my time.
What I like to do is create a betting system based on select criteria and then bet based on that. Then fine tune it as time goes on.
This is a very simplified system. I do have a BTTS system I use however it factors in a lot more than the below and also factors in odds. I’m doing this one as a starting point for you to create your own system – use this as a base to build upon.
So with that, let’s talk about my BTTS System:
BTTS 10 Point System:
I start with exactly 10 criteria that I go with to determine what side to bet, or what not to bet. I base it mostly on current form and then I look at additional criteria to sway me one way or the other. Here they are:
- If Home Team had 3/5 last competition games BTTS = Yes then 1pt.
- If Away Team had 3/5 last competition games BTTS = Yes then 1pt.
- If Home Team scored 4/5 last competition games then 1pt.
- If Away Team scored 3/5 last competition games then 1pt.
- If Home Team concedes 0.75 goals on average then 1pt.
- If Away Team concedes 0.5 goals on average then 1pt.
- If Home Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored in both halves add 1pt.
- If Away Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored in both halves add 1pt.
- If Home Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored at home in both halves add 1pt.
- If Away Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored at away in both halves add 1pt.
Now it’s a very basic system and there’s more criteria we could add to it but that’s okay – it’s a good starting point. Then as time goes on we look at what may not be a factor and remove them, or add additional factors.
I’ll do an example below.
Here are some additional criteria:
BTTS System Additional Criteria:
The three big ones are:
Match Importance: Where are we at in the stage of the season? Is a team in the promotion hunt or relegation hunt? How important is that win? Have to know if a team is going to shut up shop or not.
Previous Matchups: Is there a strong consistency one way or the other in regard to previous matchups between the two within the last two years? If so look at why that is, and then determine if those factors will affect the outcome.
Player Injuries/Suspensions: Is there any player injuries, transfers or suspensions that may affect the outcome? This is a big factor and one not to be ignored.
BTTS System Example:
Now I’m writing this in June 2018 and there’s not much soccer on in the big leagues so I’ve picked a random game – Brazil Serie B, EC Juventude vs Atletico Goianiense. For the record 8 games have been played in that league so far.
Let’s run down the criteria:
If Home Team had 3/5 last competition games BTTS = Yes then 1pt. Juventude had exactly 3 out of 5 games have BTTS so 1/2.
If Away Team had 3/5 last competition games BTTS = Yes then 1pt. Atletico had 4 out of 5 so 2/2.
If Home Team scored 4/5 last competition games then 1pt. Juventude scored 4 out of 5. So 3/3.
If Away Team scored 3/5 last competition games then 1pt. Atletico scored 4 out of 5. so 4/4.
If Home Team concedes 0.75 goals on average then 1pt. Juventude have conceded 10 goals in 8 games so 5/5.
If Away Team concedes 0.5 goals on average then 1pt. Atletico conceded 14 in 8 so an easy 6/6.
If Home Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored in both halves add 1pt. Juventude score 5 out of 8 in 1st half (0.63) but just 4 out of 8 in 2nd half. It has to be the Over 0.5 goals so 6/7.
If Away Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored in both halves add 1pt. Atletico scored 6 out of 8 in the 1st half and 7 out of 8 in the 2nd half so that’s 7/8.
If Home Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored at home in both halves add 1pt. Juventude scored 3 out of 4 in 1st half and just 1 out of 4 in 2nd half so no point there. 7/9.
If Away Team averages OVER 0.5 goals scored at away in both halves add 1pt. Atletico have 0 goals scored in the first half in 3 away games so no point there. 7/10.
That gives us a total of 7/10 points.
BTTS System: When To Bet
So out of the 10 criteria it hits 7. Does that mean we bet it?
Not yet. First you should analyze it based on the data we have. I won’t dive into it too much but Atleticos lack of away goals in the first half is concerning. Juventude have scored just 3 goals in 4 games in the first half so what that data means is there could be more second half goals and I may want to wait until half time and place the bet.
We also should factor in the odds. Generally I go with the 1.70 rule – I only bet if it is above 1.70. And then it has to hit a lot of that criteria or I have to feel confident about it.
In this particular instance, it’s:
Yes Both Teams Score: 2.00
No Both Teams Don’t Score: 1.72
So it’s coin flip odds for them both to score or not. Weighing everything up I feel confident enough to bet both teams to score in that one.
And that’s how you create a betting system. So this is the Both Teams to Score system. It’s a basic system but should be good to get you started. As time goes on you can factor on team strength etc. For example half way through the season I may want to grant an additional point if the away team scores x% of the time against a higher placed team etc.
This is just a starting point for you and luckily there’s enough soccer matches out there that you can do a wide variety of betting a day, look for consistencies that matter and what don’t.
If you start this system be sure to drop me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org and let me know how it’s going and hit me up with any questions. Always love to hear what criteria people are using.