April 21st, 2023 NBA First Round Betting Tips

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5-1 last night on Patreon! (Plus, a 3-0 from Graeme on BetNHL.ca!)

W Sixers -4.5
W Tobias Harris Over 14.5 Points
W Warriors -6
L Klay Thompson Over 4.5 Three Pointers Made
W Suns -3
W Torrey Craig Over 8.5 Points

Hopefully, everyone got in on the Suns at the number before the Kawhi news dropped.

A great night that could’ve been even better. I mentioned Cameron Johnson, he went over. I mentioned De’Aaron Fox, he went over. I backed out on Andrew Wiggins in the comments after misreading his total, he went over. There were even a couple of plays in the system that passed the test that I didn’t make because I didn’t fully trust them that also went over. The only bad spot of the night was Klay Thompson over 4.5 threes made which was more about riding a hot hand than anything the system said.

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Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks Betting Tips:

The Celtics are sweeping this series. Favorites cover the spread in the NBA Playoffs. Simple.

Derrick White has scored 24 and 26 points in the two games in this series, but his total is set at just 15.5. Why? It’s not like he’s been extremely lucky from three or there was an injury, he’s just a big part of the offense now and playing big minutes.

The other Hawk player that has been good to us in this series is Dejounte Murray and there is no reason to not go with him again here. He has a 24/8/6 and a 29/6/6 in the two games in this series. Considering he was well over this in a game where he went 0/6 from three, I feel good about him doing it again at home.

Celtics -5
Derrick White Over 15.5 Points
Dejounte Murray Over 31.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists

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Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks Betting Tips:

This was the toughest side pick of the day, but I just think that Madison Square Garden is going to be electric for this one and the team is going to feed off it. This is a series that I have going seven games and there’s nothing in the two games we’ve seen to change that. Every game will be a war.

It’s the weakest play of the day, but the one Knick I am looking to go off is Jalen Brunson. He’s put up 24 and 17 shots in the two games so he’s a big part of the offense, but he’s only made 2/12 threes thus far. That will change as he’s a 40% shooter from deep. Home cooking will help and he’ll have the ball in his hands a lot tonight.

Knicks -1.5
Jalen Brunson Over 23.5 Points

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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Tips:

I picked the Nuggets in five and I think this will be the one game. They really played a lot better in the second half of that last game and there should be a strong crowd behind them here. Nothing against the Nuggets and I’ll be happily surprised if they win here, but this just feels like it will be the Wolves night.

A big part of the change is the performance of Anthony Edwards last time out. He had 41 points in that game and promised to be that aggressive again here. I believe him, but the sportsbooks don’t as they have his points total set at just 25.5. They are wrong about that.

The system’s favorite play of the day is Jamal Murray. He has been the leader of the Nuggets offense in both games with a 24/8/8 and a 40/3/5 in his first two games. However, the PRA total for him is set at just 34.5. He can do that in points alone.

Wolves +2.5
Anthony Edwards Over 25.5 Points
Jamal Murray Over 34.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists