August 11th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for August 11th, 2021.

A 2-2-2 record last night.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tarik Skubal 119 161 108 98 106 23 104 18
BAL   96 102 89 92 19 101 14
Matt Harvey 99 94 69 75 99 12 112 23
DET   94 111 102 94 18 104 10

I can’t believe I am going to bet on Matt Harvey, but he’s earned it. None of his peripherals are that exciting. He has a 6.13 ERA/4.38 FIP on the season. He’s clearly been unlucky though with a ridiculously low 59.3% left on base. I don’t trust him, but I like his match-up. The Tigers have just a 94 wRC+ against righties on the season.

What I really like here is the Orioles offense. They have a 108 wRC+ on the year against lefties and Tarik Skubal can be hit. He has a 4.32 ERA/5.15 FIP, a really high homerun rate, and he’s been worse on the road all season. Easy pick on Baltimore here.

Pick: Bet Orioles Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 2.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +104 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Adam Wainwright 93 91 97 72 103 18 80 7
PIT   65 97 92 84 28 70 29
Wil Crowe 144 178 89 121 100 15 119 28
STL   90 99 85 88 25 104 10

The Cardinals are far from my favorite hitting team, but Wil Crowe is very hittable. He has a 5.47 ERA/6.01 FIP on the season and really struggles with walks and homeruns. The Cardinals have hit better in the second half with a 106 wRC+.

Wainwright is solid enough with a 3.48 ERA/3.86 FIP. The Pirates offense is one of the bottom in the league.

Pick: Bet Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.82 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Josh Fleming 103 81 67 71 84 1 71 4
BOS   106 99 90 104 7 88 24
Nathan Eovaldi 67 45 99 53 93 8 78 5
TBR   106 112 112 103 9 117 4

The Red Sox were up 4-1 after five innings last night (giving us the win) and then ended up losing 8-4. This is why we bet the five inning lines.

This game looks like another great spot to do the five inning. Nathan Eovaldi has had bad luck, but really been excellent with a 4.07 ERA/2.77 FIP. A high BABIP and low left on base has hurt him, but he’s been even better in his home starts.

Josh Fleming is solid, but he’s been much worse on the road this season.

Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.79 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Wade Miley 82 56 79 84 112 28 112 23
ATL   117 109 101 99 15 105 9
Touki Toussaint 112 134 105 72 99 12 79 6
CIN   108 103 98 102 10 140 1

I like Wade Miley in this match-up. He’s good at keep down his walks and homeruns, and the Braves are a slightly below average against lefties.

Touki Toussaint only has a few starts under his belt, but he’s right where the projections have him at with a 4.43 ERA/4.65 FIP. The homerun ball is a struggle for him and the Reds are pretty good at hitting them.

Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 2.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/11 11:06:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Leave a Comment