August 12th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for August 12th, 2021.

A 2-2 record last night. The Reds were the difference last night as they took it to extras, but dropped the game in the 11th.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Vladimir Gutierrez 126 132 70 110 111 29 100 20
ATL   117 108 103 98 15 98 18
Kyle Muller 74 22 109 135 98 11 76 7
CIN   108 104 98 103 8 126 2

We’re up to seven starts for Kyle Muller now and he continues to look solid. He has a 2.88 ERA/3.12 FIP. The walks are an issue, but I like his match-up today. The Reds offense has just an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

I definitely like the Braves offense against Vladmir Gutierez. Low strikeouts, high walks, and a bad homerun rate. He has a 4.15 ERA/5.44 FIP on the season so he’s actually been somewhat lucky.

Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Andrew Heaney 104 143 120 89 85 2 71 5
CHW   91 101 115 108 4 107 10
Lance Lynn 71 62 118 87 91 6 77 10
NYY   102 104 125 100 13 95 20

The Yankees have just a 94 wRC+ against right handed pitchers on the season and they are facing a good one today. They had made some moves to improve this by adding Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo, but Rizzo got COVID and Gallo is hitting just .179/.319/.359 this month. I’m not scared.

Lance Lynn has big strikeout numbers and a low homerun rate. He’s posting a 2.04 ERA/3.01 FIP on the season. He’s good.

Andrew Heaney is pretty decent himself, but he draws a much worse match-up as the White Sox have a 109 wRC+ on the season against lefties.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Jose Berrios 84 80 110 71 104 21 85 13
LAA   108 99 85 102 11 58 28
Shohei Ohtani 77 58 127 118 104 21 76 7
TOR   129 90 93 113 2 124 4

This is a great pitching match-up and I’m a big fan of Shohei Ohtani, but this Blue Jays offense is just absolutely relentless. Ohtani has struggled with the walk this season and if there’s one thing you don’t want to do against the Jays it’s put runners on base. The Jays have a 113 wRC+ on the season and a 114 wRC+ against righties.

Berrios looks good with a 3.23 ERA/3.54 FIP. He goes against a league average offense against righties.

I’m going full game moneyline on this one because I can see Ohtani having a good start, but I can’t see the Jays having a bad game.

Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -129 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.77 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Yu Darvish 87 116 127 63 90 4 55 1
ARI   74 106 97 83 27 67 26
Taylor Widener 139 178 102 112 117 30 125 26
SDP   100 98 107 102 11 109 9

This is just a slam dunk pick for the Padres. Darvish is great and he matches up well with this team. He’s a big strikeout guy, they are a big strikeout team. His weakness is homeruns, the Diamondbacks are one of the weakest power teams in the league. Arizona has just a 67 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

The Padres bullpen is very good and has really been showing up of late. They have a miniscule 55 FIP- over the past two weeks.

Widener is very hittable with a 4.89 ERA/5.81 FIP. He’ll be followed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. tThe Padres offense has a 109 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Padres -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -143 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.69 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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