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Four MLB System tips for August 12th, 2021.
A 2-2 record last night. The Reds were the difference last night as they took it to extras, but dropped the game in the 11th.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 126 | 132 | 70 | 110 | 111 | 29 | 100 | 20 |
| ATL | 117 | 108 | 103 | 98 | 15 | 98 | 18 | |
| Kyle Muller | 74 | 22 | 109 | 135 | 98 | 11 | 76 | 7 |
| CIN | 108 | 104 | 98 | 103 | 8 | 126 | 2 |
We’re up to seven starts for Kyle Muller now and he continues to look solid. He has a 2.88 ERA/3.12 FIP. The walks are an issue, but I like his match-up today. The Reds offense has just an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
I definitely like the Braves offense against Vladmir Gutierez. Low strikeouts, high walks, and a bad homerun rate. He has a 4.15 ERA/5.44 FIP on the season so he’s actually been somewhat lucky.
Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)
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New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 104 | 143 | 120 | 89 | 85 | 2 | 71 | 5 |
| CHW | 91 | 101 | 115 | 108 | 4 | 107 | 10 | |
| Lance Lynn | 71 | 62 | 118 | 87 | 91 | 6 | 77 | 10 |
| NYY | 102 | 104 | 125 | 100 | 13 | 95 | 20 |
The Yankees have just a 94 wRC+ against right handed pitchers on the season and they are facing a good one today. They had made some moves to improve this by adding Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo, but Rizzo got COVID and Gallo is hitting just .179/.319/.359 this month. I’m not scared.
Lance Lynn has big strikeout numbers and a low homerun rate. He’s posting a 2.04 ERA/3.01 FIP on the season. He’s good.
Andrew Heaney is pretty decent himself, but he draws a much worse match-up as the White Sox have a 109 wRC+ on the season against lefties.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 84 | 80 | 110 | 71 | 104 | 21 | 85 | 13 |
| LAA | 108 | 99 | 85 | 102 | 11 | 58 | 28 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | 77 | 58 | 127 | 118 | 104 | 21 | 76 | 7 |
| TOR | 129 | 90 | 93 | 113 | 2 | 124 | 4 |
This is a great pitching match-up and I’m a big fan of Shohei Ohtani, but this Blue Jays offense is just absolutely relentless. Ohtani has struggled with the walk this season and if there’s one thing you don’t want to do against the Jays it’s put runners on base. The Jays have a 113 wRC+ on the season and a 114 wRC+ against righties.
Berrios looks good with a 3.23 ERA/3.54 FIP. He goes against a league average offense against righties.
I’m going full game moneyline on this one because I can see Ohtani having a good start, but I can’t see the Jays having a bad game.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -129 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.77 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 87 | 116 | 127 | 63 | 90 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| ARI | 74 | 106 | 97 | 83 | 27 | 67 | 26 | |
| Taylor Widener | 139 | 178 | 102 | 112 | 117 | 30 | 125 | 26 |
| SDP | 100 | 98 | 107 | 102 | 11 | 109 | 9 |
This is just a slam dunk pick for the Padres. Darvish is great and he matches up well with this team. He’s a big strikeout guy, they are a big strikeout team. His weakness is homeruns, the Diamondbacks are one of the weakest power teams in the league. Arizona has just a 67 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
The Padres bullpen is very good and has really been showing up of late. They have a miniscule 55 FIP- over the past two weeks.
Widener is very hittable with a 4.89 ERA/5.81 FIP. He’ll be followed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. tThe Padres offense has a 109 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Pick: Bet Padres -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -143 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.69 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/12 12:07:18 PM EST but are subject to change.)
