[Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
Four tips tonight on Patreon, all are available below.
4-3-1 last night. 220-189 for the season. 66-61 for the month. 48-38 over the last three weeks.
Sign up today for Patreon and get our entire month of tips for just $11. I’ll have MLB nearly every day, Graeme will have F1, golf, and much more.
- Exclusive betting tips. Not just the tips omitted from these posts, but Vin will also be posting EVERY MLB System play and Graeme does Golf, WNBA, Formula 1, and various non-EPL soccer tips.
- Ad-free experience.
- Priority e-mails; receive the e-mails as soon as the tips are posted rather than hours later.
- Feeling good about supporting two guys who have worked their butts off writing sports tips on here for free for over 10 years. We promise only to spend it on beer and wings at our local sports bars!
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
(Advertisement but we have tested it out and have been quite impressed with it)
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
SEA – Marco Gonzales 3.66 ERA/5.08 FIP
NYY – Domingo German 8.22 ERA/7.42 FIP
Things have been rough for German since his return from injury and I don’t know how much better they get here.
Marco is a guy I will put up with his ERA/FIP differential when he’s playing at home in a pitcher friendly park against an average offense. This is neither of those things. The Yankees crush lefties and this is a pitcher friendly park.
I see bad and short days for both.
Mariners/Yankees Over 9 Runs (-110)
Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
(Advertisement but we have tested it out and have been quite impressed with it)
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
KCR – Brad Keller 4.18 ERA/4.26 FIP
CHW – Michael Kopech 3.16 ERA/4.42 FIP
Kopech has really struggled over his past four starts with a huge homerun rate and a 4.43 ERA/6.91 FIP. Strikeouts down, walks up, homeruns up. Yes, please.
Keller has a 4.76 ERA/3.91 FIP over his past four starts. The homerun rate has been saving him lately with just a 5.6% HR/FB rate. The weather and White Sox offense should do something about that. The White Sox have a 111 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Both of these bullpens have really struggled of late.
All that plus winds blowing out to right-center at 10MPH.
Royals/White Sox Over 9 Runs (-107)
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
COL – Antonio Senzatela 4.90 ERA/3.99 FIP
SDP – Mike Clevinger 3.38 ERA/3.85 FIP
The Coors hangover is definitely in play here, but this is just a great match-up for Clevinger as well. The Rockies have just an 86 wRC+ against righties this season and this is a very pitcher friendly park.
I don’t love Senzatela’s strikeout numbers, but he does a great job of limiting the long ball. He’s really been killed by a high BABIP this year. The Padres aren’t a great BABIP teamm and they have an 89 wRC+ over the last thirty days.
Both bullpens are better than average.
Rockies/Padres Under 7.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
LAD – Andrew Heaney 0.47 ERA/2.40 FIP
SFG – Logan Webb 2.91 ERA/3.21 FIP
Only a 19.1 inning sample on Heaney, but that is dominant. A high strikeout and low homerun rate proves that it’s not just luck. The Giants offense has really struggled of late with an 82 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Webb is the Giants best pitcher, but he’s not infallible. The Dodgers offense is as tough as it gets with a 121 wRC+ against righties. The Giants bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball over the past two weeks.
No idea why this line isn’t higher.
Dodgers Moneyline (-134)