August 23rd, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A 2-1 night, spoiled by a bad bullpen.

Zack Wheeler had a great seven inning start and the Phillies were ahead 4-2 heading into the eighth inning. What could go wrong? The Phillies bullpen, that’s what. They’d go on to allow three in the eighth and then one in the bottom of the ninth to give up the loss. This was a win we had in the bag that the Phillies bullpen just took away from us.

That was not the case in the Mariners/Rangers game. The Mariners scored three in the first and then five in the third, and never looked back in a 10-1 win. The Mariners tagged starter Jordan Lyles for all eight runs and Justus Sheffield threw six strong innings of one-run ball to get the win. I love it when a plan comes together like this.

We needed a bit of drama to get there in the Red Sox/Orioles game, but we got there. The Red Sox took a 3-1 lead into the eighth when Anthony Santander hit an absolute bomb to tie it up. This forced extra innings where the Red Sox scored one at the top of the 10th, but then the Orioles answered with two to walk it off.

It’s Sunday so lots of day games and one night cap. Let’s finish the week off strong.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Astros: Zack Greinke 1.84 ERA/1.96 FIP
Padres: Adrian Morejon 4.52 ERA/4.49 FIP (ZiPS Projection

I had to use the Morejon ZiPS projection for this one because Morejon only has 11 innings pitched in his major league career. The 21-year-old lefty has a ton of upside as one of the team’s top prospects, but the control doesn’t seem to be there just yet. I wouldn’t expect him to go very deep into this one and he could have a rough day against this Astros offense. Houston has a 123 wRC+ against left handed pitchers on the season.

This tip is all about Greinke as when he is on the mound is really the only time I trust the Astros right now. The Padres are a very scary offense right now, but this is Zack Greinke we’re talking about. He’s faced down the best and just continues to get results. I think he can impress again here today.

Bet Astros -118

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Phillies: Zach Eflin 5.14 ERA/2.80 FIP
Braves: Josh Tomlin 2.35 ERA/1.59 FIP

Is this just me trying to get my money back from yesterday? Maybe, but I also like the Braves in this match-up. The projections show that Eflin is closer to his ERA than his FIP and I’d be really surprised if he kept striking people out at a 14.79 K/9 clip considering that is more than double his total from last year. The Braves do strike out a lot, but they also hit the ball very hard against right handers.

Most importantly, Eflin has only gone four innings in two of his three starts this year and if that happens again, I like the Braves to feast on this bullpen that stinks and absolutely screwed us yesterday. Tomlin is more of an opener at this point so I wouldn’t dig too far into his numbers. The Braves bullpen has a 3.47 ERA/3.73 FIP on the season. The Phillies have a 8.29 ERA/5.42 FIP.

Avoid the mistakes of yesterday, take the Braves.

Bet Braves -112

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