August 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for August 30th, 2021.

A record of 2-1 on Saturday.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Zack Wheeler 58 53 124 61 108 26 82 5
WSN   94 97 94 100 12 109 9
Josiah Gray 159 274 119 90 108 26 139 29
PHI   97 106 101 92 17 81 26

Not a big sample on Josiah Gray, but he has not been very good. He has a 3.75 ERA/6.33 FIP on the season while allowing at least one homerun in every single appearance this season. He’s allowed six homeruns over his past three starts and I think the Phillies can continue that trend here.

Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers on the board today with a 2.90 ERA/2.58 FIP on the season. He has a huge strikeout rate while keeping his walks and homeruns down.

Pick: Bet Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -112 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/30 11:25:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Corbin Burnes 39 28 146 56 100 13 88 6
SFG   113 108 104 107 5 91 19
Johnny Cueto 98 101 90 62 93 7 77 2
MIL   99 108 104 94 16 100 13

Corbin Burnes is amazing. He has a 2.30 ERA/1.65 FIP on the season with a huge strikeout rate and he has crazy low walk and homerun rates. The Giants offense is a tough one, but Burnes should be able to handle them early.

The Giants send Johnny Cueto to the mound who is basically the most average pitcher there is. There is nothing particularly great or bad about him, but he usually gives up a run or two. If he does that, Burnes should take care of the rest of this bet.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -112 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.89 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/30 11:25:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Drew Smyly 121 155 93 89 98 11 90 10
LAD   107 102 108 108 4 91 19
Julio Urias 80 88 112 62 91 4 98 15
ATL   111 107 105 100 12 117 6

Drew Smyly is a very hittable pitcher with a 4.54 ERA/5.04 FIP on the season. He faces a very dangerous Dodgers offense today. They have just a 99 wRC+ against lefties on the season, but don’t let that number fool you. This team is tough and they can put up big runs.

The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the mound who has a 3.17 ERA/3.34 FIP on the year. The Braves offense has a 95 wRC+ against lefties. They are similarly dangerous and playing well of late, but Urias does a good job of racking up strikeouts and keeping walks down. He should do enough for us here.

Pick: Bet Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/30 11:25:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

3 thoughts on “August 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips”

  1. Hi there!

    Great site, I have been following you and Graeme for quite some time now. A short question, can you
    perhaps consider bringing in units to the MLB tips? A guess is that you canĀ“t have the exact same confidence in each tip :). Thanks!

    Reply
    • The variance of baseball keeps me mostly sticking with one unit bets. The lines are often so close that I rarely see a spot where I feel it is worse going above and beyond that. I will sometimes note that a game is the System’s favorite or something like that. These would be the higher confidence picks and I’ll make sure to point that out more in the future.

      Reply

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