August 31st, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for August 31st, 2021.

A 3-0 record last night!

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Matt Moore 132 161 83 115 106 23 68 1
WSN   93 98 94 99 14 110 7
Patrick Corbin 130 170 79 82 109 27 141 30
PHI   99 104 102 94 16 93 15

These are two pitchers that we love to target going against two offenses that hit lefties well.

Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA/5.70 FIP and the Nationals offense has a 115 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Patrick Corbin has a 6.09 ERA/5.52 FIP on the season and Phillies have a 103 wRC+ against lefties. These are also two bullpens that I don’t trust at all.

If you can get this number at 9 runs, you should go for that.

Pick: Bet Phillies/Nationals Over 9.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.93 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Cole Irvin 90 58 68 59 100 14 110 23
DET   92 111 96 90 24 67 28
Tarik Skubal 112 153 114 91 107 25 118 24
OAK   100 98 106 102 8 79 24

The Athletics are the better team overall here and they have the better starter on the mound.

Cole Irvin’s strikeout numbers aren’t that impressive, but he gets the job done with a 3.68 ERA/3.73 FIP. The Tigers offense is decent against lefties with a 98 wRC+, but they just have a 90 wRC+ overall.

The Oakland offense has a 102 wRC+ against lefties. They draw a nice match-up against Tarik Skubal who has a 4.01 ERA/4.88 FIP. Skubal has big walk and homerun numbers which could be trouble for him as the Athletics have a great walk percentage.

Pick: Bet Athletics Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Zach Davies 127 119 75 124 110 28 123 27
MIN   108 99 105 102 8 83 22
John Gant 117 64 79 170 107 25 130 29
CHC   99 120 89 91 23 102 10

Things have not going well for the Cubs of late with almost nothing going well. They don’t have a good starter going today, they don’t have a good bullpen, and their offense is weak. You can pretty much bet against them in any game and feel good about it.

I like the Twins to get the job done here. They have a very good offense that hits a ton of homeruns. They have a 105 wRC+ against righties while Zach Davies gives up a lot of homeruns and has a 5.00 ERA/5.26 FIP.

John Gant is nothing special, but he’s better at home and the Cubs have just an 86 wRC+ against righties.

Pick: Bet Twins Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.67 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -145 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lance McCullers Jr. 85 61 119 129 100 14 97 14
SEA   94 111 104 92 22 91 18
Yusei Kikuchi 112 133 108 104 88 3 85 8
HOU   102 84 107 117 1 119 2

The Astros are one of the best teams in the league against left handed pitching and they draw a strong match-up here. Yusei Kikuchi has a 4.33 ERA/4.71 FIP on the year and homeruns have been an issue. The Astros enter this game red hot with a 119 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Lance McCullers Jr. is a solid pitcher with a 3.32 ERA/3.54 FIP. The Mariners offense has just a 92 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/31 11:42:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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