July 13th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-0 record last night.

We took the Red Sox over the Dodgers and this was an easy one. The Red Sox scored three off of Kenta Maeda as we’d hoped and then they really piled it on against the bullpen for an 8-1 win.

We also had the Cardinals with Adam Wainwright over the Diamondbacks, but he ended up being scratched to refund the bet.

Another full slate today, but the Bet MLB System only likes two games tonight. Let’s get into them.

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Twins Jake Odorizzi 77
HOME Indians Trevor Bauer 89

Today I learned, Odorizzi has a lower season FIP than Trevor Bauer. A big reason for that is the real struggles that Bauer has had at home this season. Some big homerun numbers, 4+ walks per nine and a 4.96 ERA/5.06 FIP. He’s facing one of the very best offenses in baseball this season and a team that is looking to prove that the AL Central now belongs to them.

I’m not sure I believe that Odorizzi is the better pitcher here, but the 3.15 ERA/3.58 FIP is for real. The Indians are a below average offense on the season and I think the Twins are a great play here.

Bet Twins +130

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Astros Wade Miley 96
HOME Rangers Mike Minor 79

Mike Minor has been very good at home this season and very good to us as bettors, but I am not sure I see it here tonight. The Astros are a dangerous offense against lefties and he’s had some luck with his 2.34 ERA/2.82 FIP at home. I still like him quite a bit, just not today and his bullpen is unlikely to do him many favors.

The Rangers haven’t been very good against lefties this year. Wade Miley has had some great luck this season, but he’s still pretty solid with a 3.28 ERA/4.33 FIP.

This match-up is a battle of left-handed pitchers, but the battle of the offenses against left-handed pitchers is a much more interesting one. The Astros have a 134 wRC+ against left handed pitchers on the season while the Rangers sit at just 83 wRC+. I believe that makes up for the difference between Minor and Miley, and the Astros are a good bet here.

Bet Astros -132