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MLB tips for July 15th, 2022.
3-3 last night.
The Mariners refused to lose run continued with a late rally to steal that win away. The Astros won, but fell short of the -1.5. Sonny Gray got rocked.
Seven tips for tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:
PHI – Kyle Gibson 4.53 ERA/4.33 FIP
MIA – Sandy Alcantara 1.73 ERA/2.83 FIP
This pick is all about Alcantara at home. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has been even better at home. Opposing hitters have just a .179/.227/.271 slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) against him in Miami. The Phillies have been average against righties this season and are still without Bryce Harper.
The Marlins have hit righties well and Gibson has struggled of late. He has a 4.82 ERA/5.96 FIP over his past five starts.
With a pitching match-up this wide, it’s easy to lay the runs.
Marlins -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
BOS – Nathan Eovaldi 3.16 ERA/4.53 FIP
NYY – Jordan Montgomery 3.19 ERA/3.79 FIP
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
SEA – Robbie Ray 3.51 ERA/3.93 FIP
TEX – Matt Bush 3.64 ERA/3.71 FIP (Opener) / Taylor Hearn 5.86 ERA/4.79 FIP (Follower)
You almost have to throw out the season stats on Robbie Ray. His velocity was down early and he didn’t quite look like himself. He’s been much better over his past six starts with a maximum of one earned run allowed in his starts. A 0.91 ERA/2.50 FIP is outstanding and should shut down Texas early today.
Mariners face Bush/Hearn today and neither one of those guys is scaring me all that much. The Mariners hit well from both sides of the plate and should be able to put up some runs early.
Double bet here as it is another 100 degree day in Texas. The overs have been hitting here of late and this line is low considering the stadium/weather/both offenses are hot/Rangers bullpen factors.
Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)
Mariners/Rangers Over 8 Runs (-113)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
CHW – Michael Kopech 3.35 ERA/4.47 FIP
MIN – Devin Smeltzer 3.92 ERA/5.54 FIP
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
LAD – Clayton Kershaw 2.40 ERA/2.57
FIP LAA – Patrick Sandoval 2.95 ERA/3.00 FIP
Kershaw has looked great thus far this season and the Angels offense is really struggling. They are below average against lefties with a 91 wRC+ on the season. As long as he can avoid Mike Trout, he should be great.
Sandoval is a talented pitcher, but I just don’t like the match-up and don’t trust his offense. The Dodgers hit lefties well and are one of the hottest offenses right now with a 137 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
MIL – Brandon Woodruff 4.01 ERA/2.86 FIP
SFG – Alex Wood 4.43 ERA/3.26 FIP
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