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It’s Opening Day, again!
A strong 1-0 start to our season last night that was not without drama. We took the over on the Yankees/Nationals game and we were on a good pace with five total runs midway through the game, but then the rain came and it never stopped. The game was called on account of rain and our bet was voided. Sportsbooks require 8.5 innings to be completed for a total bet to become official.
Our other tip was the Dodgers -1.5 and the over, but then Clayton Kershaw got scratched and those bets were voided. I managed to update the post yesterday afternoon and said to go with the Dodgers -1.5, but not the over as it shot up with the new pitcher. The new total was 9 runs and the final score was 8-1, Dodgers.
A good way to start the season and now we get to see the rest of the league. I post the starting pitchers with all my tips as the tips are based on those pitchers starting. Any change, you can consider that bet voided. I’ll try to update the posts whenever I can like I did yesterday.
We got the win yesterday and now we have a whole lot more to work with. Let’s get into it and continue the strong start.
Best Odds for MLB:
|Type of Bet / Prop:||Where To Bet:|
|R + H + E||BetOnline|
|MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day)||Bovada|
|World Series Futures||SportsBetting.ag|
|5 Inning Run Lines||BetOnline|
|1st Inning Moneylines||Bovada|
|Total Team Runs Over/Under||Bovada|
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
Royals: Danny Duffy 4.34 ERA/4.78 FIP (2019)
Indians: Shane Bieber 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP (2019)
All the projections I have seen are really high on Shane Bieber and for good reason. He struck out 10.88 batters per nine innings last year and is now the Indians’ ace. He draws a great match-up here against the Royals who look like one of the worst offenses in the league. There aren’t many batters in this lineup that scare me and I think Bieber could have a very nice game.
He goes against Danny Duffy who the projection systems hate. His strikeout numbers aren’t anything great and he gave up 1.45 HR/9 last year. He’ll almost definitely give up one here. Carlos Santana is one to watch as he absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching last year.
While the Indians offense isn’t anything special, I think this is one of the most lopsided match-ups of the day and I think it’s worth laying the runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner 3.90 ERA/3.90 FIP (2019)
Padres: Chris Paddack 3.33 ERA/3.95 FIP (2019)
Things are not looking good for Bumgarner’s move from San Fran to Phoenix. All of his projections show him performing worse by leaving the friendly confines of the pitcher-friendly San Francisco to the hitter haven of Arizona. That won’t be the case today as he’s on the road, but I am still not loving him here today. The Padres offense looks to be much improved and I think they are going to make for a short afternoon for Madison today.
While Chris Paddack shows promise, his homerun rate was high last year and he relied on a low batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA down. I think Arizona will also send him to the showers here.
This is going to be a season with a high run scoring and this is the exact kind of game that should show it. It’s going to take at least five runs to win this one. While the system likes the Padres to win, it likes the over a whole lot more so that’s what we’ll be going with.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
Giants: Jeff Samardzija 3.52 ERA/4.59 FIP
Dodgers: Ross Stripling 3.47 ERA/3.47 FIP
Last night showed us all we need to know about these two teams and I think a repeat result is very likely. Jeff Samardzija is a pitcher that I will be going against a lot this season as he has bad strikeout numbers, a bad homerun rate, and is simply past his prime. He relied on a very low BABIP to keep his ERA down last year and that’s just not going to fly against a team like the Dodgers. They are going to hit him and hit him hard.
Ross Stripling is good enough. The Giants offense stinks. Lay the runs again.