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Four MLB System betting tips for July 26th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ross | 106 | 130 | 104 | 84 | 101 | 14 | 147 | 29 |
| PHI | 98 | 109 | 99 | 94 | 17 | 94 | 22 | |
| Spencer Howard | 100 | 61 | 109 | 168 | 108 | 26 | 141 | 28 |
| WSN | 93 | 98 | 88 | 100 | 13 | 131 | 3 |
This one is all about the Nationals offense. They are just killing the ball of late with a 131 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Things are coming together for them right now and they are really seeing the ball well.
Neither of these pitchers are guys I feel complete confidence in and the bullpens even less so, but if we’re looking at a slugfest here then I have to go with the Nationals. They are just getting it done right now.
Pick: Bet Nationals Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +108 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.08 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 75 | 51 | 84 | 73 | 112 | 28 | 121 | 23 |
| CHC | 108 | 116 | 91 | 90 | 20 | 89 | 25 | |
| Kyle Hendricks | 112 | 129 | 74 | 51 | 102 | 17 | 136 | 27 |
| CIN | 107 | 103 | 96 | 99 | 14 | 95 | 20 |
This is a line that just makes no sense to me. Wade Miley is having a much better season than Hendricks and the Reds offense is much better than the Cubs offense. What am I missing here?
Hendricks is a low strikeout pitcher who has struggled with the homerun this year. The Reds have a ton of power. I think they’ll make him pay early.
Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Marquez | 75 | 57 | 104 | 101 | 111 | 27 | 92 | 9 |
| LAA | 117 | 97 | 82 | 107 | 6 | 95 | 20 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | 79 | 58 | 132 | 136 | 106 | 22 | 107 | 16 |
| COL | 78 | 99 | 88 | 75 | 30 | 65 | 29 |
This one is a little bit higher on the moneyline side than I normally like to bet, but I think it is a good play. Ohtani is a very talented pitcher and this Rockies offense is just terrible. They have a 70 wRC+ against righties on the season, worst in the league, and they have just a 65 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Ohtani should have a very nice night.
It might take the Angels awhile to score with Marquez on the mound, but I have complete faith they will outscore their opponents today.
Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -146 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia | 81 | 77 | 121 | 91 | 105 | 20 | 102 | 13 |
| SEA | 103 | 112 | 101 | 90 | 20 | 101 | 17 | |
| Darren McCaughan | 118 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 86 | 2 | 89 | 8 |
| HOU | 108 | 83 | 110 | 117 | 1 | 89 | 25 |
Not much of a sample size on McCaughan, but he’s a non-prospect that doesn’t get a lot of swing-and-miss. In his last appearance he threw five innings and only had one swing-and-miss. That worked out well for him last time, but against the Astros offense? I don’t like his chances.
Luis Garcia is having a great season with a 2.86 ERA/3.33 FIP and the Mariners offense has been below average against righties all season. I trust him to do well here.
Seattle has a great bullpen while the Astros bullpen is sus. Stick with the 5 inning bet here as there is something weird going on with this Mariners team.
Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)
