July 26th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System betting tips for July 26th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Joe Ross 106 130 104 84 101 14 147 29
PHI   98 109 99 94 17 94 22
Spencer Howard 100 61 109 168 108 26 141 28
WSN   93 98 88 100 13 131 3

This one is all about the Nationals offense. They are just killing the ball of late with a 131 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Things are coming together for them right now and they are really seeing the ball well.

Neither of these pitchers are guys I feel complete confidence in and the bullpens even less so, but if we’re looking at a slugfest here then I have to go with the Nationals. They are just getting it done right now.

Pick: Bet Nationals Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: +108 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.08 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Wade Miley 75 51 84 73 112 28 121 23
CHC   108 116 91 90 20 89 25
Kyle Hendricks 112 129 74 51 102 17 136 27
CIN   107 103 96 99 14 95 20

This is a line that just makes no sense to me. Wade Miley is having a much better season than Hendricks and the Reds offense is much better than the Cubs offense. What am I missing here?

Hendricks is a low strikeout pitcher who has struggled with the homerun this year. The Reds have a ton of power. I think they’ll make him pay early.

Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
German Marquez 75 57 104 101 111 27 92 9
LAA   117 97 82 107 6 95 20
Shohei Ohtani 79 58 132 136 106 22 107 16
COL   78 99 88 75 30 65 29

This one is a little bit higher on the moneyline side than I normally like to bet, but I think it is a good play. Ohtani is a very talented pitcher and this Rockies offense is just terrible. They have a 70 wRC+ against righties on the season, worst in the league, and they have just a 65 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Ohtani should have a very nice night.

It might take the Angels awhile to score with Marquez on the mound, but I have complete faith they will outscore their opponents today.

Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -146 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Luis Garcia 81 77 121 91 105 20 102 13
SEA   103 112 101 90 20 101 17
Darren McCaughan 118 0 0 204 86 2 89 8
HOU   108 83 110 117 1 89 25

Not much of a sample size on McCaughan, but he’s a non-prospect that doesn’t get a lot of swing-and-miss. In his last appearance he threw five innings and only had one swing-and-miss. That worked out well for him last time, but against the Astros offense? I don’t like his chances.

Luis Garcia is having a great season with a 2.86 ERA/3.33 FIP and the Mariners offense has been below average against righties all season. I trust him to do well here.

Seattle has a great bullpen while the Astros bullpen is sus. Stick with the 5 inning bet here as there is something weird going on with this Mariners team.

Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/26 1:18:24 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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