July 3rd, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

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A 3-1 record over at SportsBettingTips.org on Monday and Tuesday with an awesome 2-0 on underdog plays yesterday.

I’ve had my reservations about taking the Mariners, but the system really liked them yesterday. Well, they proved me right and the system right. They had a 4-1 lead after five innings, but quickly let the Cardinals tie it up. Tim Beckham then added a pinch-hit homerun and the Mariners were able to pull out the 5-4 win.

The system has really liked the Pirates over the Cubs this week and that paid off again last night. The Pirates ran Cubs’ ace Kyle Hendricks off after just three innings and won this one 5-1.

A very nice night. The system likes three plays today so let’s get into those.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Brewers Jhoulys Chacin 140
HOME Reds Sonny Gray 81

This one is all about the starting pitchers. Sonny Gray has been excellent since leaving the American League and the short fences of Yankee Stadium. He has a 3.94 ERA/3.62 FIP with good strikeout numbers and he does a good job of limiting homeruns. The Brewers offense is tough, but they have struggled of late.

Jhoulys Chacin is the kind of pitcher that turns my eyeballs into dollar signs. He has a 5.60 ERA/5.87 FIP on the season with high homeruns and high walks. Not a good recipe for success. It should be humid out there and I think the Great American Ballpark is one of the more underrated hitting parks out there during the summer.

Bet Reds -131

Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Astros Wade Miley 99
HOME Rockies Peter Lambert 132

This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Peter Lambert has only made three starts in Coors Field this year, but he’s allowed fourteen runs during those starts. He has yet to figure out his home park and that’s a big problem when that park is the best hitting park in baseball. The Astros are a very tough offensive team and I really think they should be a much better favorite here.

Wade Miley is nothing to get too excited about, a 3.39 ERA/4.48 FIP, but neither is the Rockies offense. They have just a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks. While they are a good team against lefties, I just don’t see them winning this one today.

Bet Astros -131

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

  Team Name FIP-
AWAY Cardinals Adam Wainwright 103
HOME Mariners Mike Leake 114

Adam Wainwright is having a nice season, especially for his age, but the road has been cruel to him this season. He has a 5.43 ERA/4.93 FIP with a 1.51 HR/9 rate. This Mariners’ offense has really been hitting the ball well of late and I think they can get to him early here.

While Mike Leake is a guy I don’t trust a ton, he’s done very well at home this season. He has a 3.43 ERA/4.36 FIP in Seattle and faces an ice cold Cardinals offense. The Cardinals .650 OPS/72 wRC+ is dead last in the league over the past two weeks.

Bet Mariners +111