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Four MLB system betting tips and one NBA Finals pick for July 6th, 2021.
The NBA Finals begin tonight and it is an exciting time to be a basketball fan. This will be the first NBA Finals that doesn’t include either Kobe Bryant, Stephen Curry, or LeBron James in the past fifteen years. It is also the first Finals since 2010 where the top scorers on both teams (Giannis and Devin Booker) have only played for that team in their careers. It is a great advertisement for drafting great players, developing them into stars, and surrounding them with the help they need.
The question mark of Giannis is really a cloud over this series. I believe that we will see him play, but he is listed as doubtful tonight and I’d be surprised to see him play tonight. Every game matters in the Finals and that could ultimately be what swings this series. Especially with the Suns having home court advantage.
That said, I think the Bucks are a decent bet at +165 to win this series. I can easily see Giannis missing game one and then coming in and looking like he never left. I also have some question marks about this Suns team as they have had a somewhat easy path to these Finals. They beat the Lakers who were mostly without Anthony Davis, the Nuggets without Jamal Murray, and then the Clippers without Kawhi. Not saying they aren’t a great team, but I don’t think they faced anything as tough as the Bucks faced in that Brooklyn series.
I still think Khris Middleton is a good bet as series MVP, but he’s down to +500 now. Giannis at +450 is right there with him as if they lose game one then he comes back for game two and they win, that’s quite the narrative.
If you like the Suns, the MVP bet is definitely Devin Booker at +225. Chris Paul is the favorite, but that feels more sentimental than anything else and I can see him having a real rough time with Jrue Holiday defending. Booker has averaged 27 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in these playoffs. While Paul sits at 18.1/3.9/8.7. Paul is a media narrative favorite, Booker should be the actual favorite.
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns Betting Tips:
Giannis is listed as doubtful so we probably won’t know what the deal is happening there until much later tonight. As of right now the Suns are a -6 favorite. If he plays, that line goes down.
I am not really interested in the spread of this game for that reason, but I am looking at the over a bit here. We’ve seen with the Finals over the past few years where the series starts off high scoring and then goes down as we get closer to the finish. That definitely feels like a possibility for what happens here.
Both of the regular season meetings between these teams went way over with 249+ scored in each game. I know the playoffs are a different animal, but that seems like a good guide for how this will begin
Pick: Bet Over 219.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -108 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/06 12:27:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
MLB Betting Tips
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | 118 | 114 | 60 | 77 | 105 | 18 | 95 | 11 |
| NYM | 83 | 107 | 92 | 92 | 17 | 91 | 20 | |
| Jacob deGrom | 23 | 37 | 189 | 40 | 94 | 8 | 102 | 16 |
| MIL | 101 | 113 | 107 | 90 | 21 | 123 | 3 |
The same rules as always apply to this Jacob deGrom start: if he’s affordable enough to bet, you bet him. You have to lay the runs today, but I think it is definitely worth it in this one. The Brewers have just an 89 wRC+ against righties on the season and they have a high strikeout rate. It’s a perfect match-up for deGrom to dominate and go deep.
Brett Anderson goes for the Brewers and he has been a mess on the road with a 5.66 FIP. The Mets are about an average offense against lefties on the season and they should hit here.
Pick: Bet Mets -1.5
Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -116 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/06 12:27:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 82 | 114 | 122 | 60 | 109 | 25 | 122 | 22 |
| CHC | 110 | 116 | 94 | 92 | 17 | 86 | 24 | |
| Jake Arrieta | 145 | 171 | 78 | 112 | 96 | 12 | 150 | 29 |
| PHI | 94 | 110 | 95 | 93 | 16 | 98 | 18 |
The Cubs are skidding right now and I don’t see things getting much better here. Jake Arrieta has had a rough season with a 5.57 ERA/5.84 FIP. He has a real high homerun rate with the Phillies have some players who can make him play.
Philly sends their ace in Aaron Nola tot he mound. He’s been slightly worse on the road this season, but he’s a solid pitcher and the Cubs are ice cold right now.
Pick: Bet Phillies Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.67 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -139 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/06 12:27:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 59 | 59 | 154 | 88 | 93 | 7 | 137 | 27 |
| MIN | 124 | 97 | 100 | 105 | 7 | 118 | 7 | |
| Jose Berrios | 85 | 82 | 105 | 71 | 109 | 25 | 131 | 24 |
| CHW | 86 | 100 | 117 | 109 | 3 | 127 | 1 |
This is a pretty close line, but I don’t quite get why. Carlos Rodon has been the better pitcher on the season with a huge strikeout rate. The White Sox bullpen has been better than the Twins and the Sox offense is slightly better than the Twins.
Berrios is a good pitcher and the Twins offense is loaded, but the White Sox grade out as better in all facets of this one.
Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.71 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -119 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/06 12:27:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | 98 | 101 | 97 | 72 | 105 | 18 | 131 | 24 |
| SFG | 127 | 109 | 108 | 109 | 3 | 109 | 10 | |
| Johnny Cueto | 103 | 108 | 80 | 51 | 102 | 16 | 81 | 6 |
| STL | 87 | 96 | 87 | 88 | 26 | 88 | 23 |
The Giants have just been ridiculously good this season. They have a 109 wRC+ on the season and a 111 wRC+ against righties. Adam Wainwright has been an average pitcher, but he has been much worse in his road starts.
Cueto is nothing special, but he won’t kill you. The Cardinals offense just does nothing for me with a 85 wRC+ against righties.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: 1.67 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -133 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/06 12:27:50 PM EST but are subject to change.)
