July 7th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

Four MLB tips for July 7th, 2021.

1-0 in the NBA Finals and 2-1 in MLB last night.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Zack Wheeler 53 48 131 62 109 25 122 22
CHC   110 116 94 92 17 86 24
Alec Mills 102 73 78 88 96 12 150 29
PHI   94 110 95 93 16 98 18

The Cubs are in an absolute tailspin right now. I watched some of yesterday’s game and they just looked like a team lost. Tons of errors and just mental mistakes. They aren’t in a good way right now. They managed to score ten runs because the wind was blowing out like crazy, but this wasn’t even remotely close.

Zack Wheeler should continue that trend here. He’s been great this season with a 2.05 ERA/2.29 FIP. His road numbers are solid and I see no issue backing him here today.

Alec Mills is an average pitcher that doesn’t really do anything great. The way the Phillies have hit the last couple days, I see no reason not to back them again tonight.

Pick: Bet Phillies -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: -117 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Antonio Senzatela 94 79 65 57 115 29 134 26
ARI   75 104 93 85 28 85 26
Humberto Castellanos 100 67 85 135 118 30 126 23
COL   81 100 88 79 30 76 30

This pick is not a bet on either of these pitchers, but a bet against the offenses. They stink. For the season the Rockies have just a 79 wRC+ which has dropped to 76 over the past two weeks. The Diamondbacks aren’t much better with an 85 wRC+ and just an 80 wRC+ against right handed pitchers.

Both of these pitchers are decent enough that I think they can get through the early going unscathed. It’s kind of a small sample size on Castellanos, but it is what it is. These offenses stink and the over is too high.

Pick: Bet Under 9.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.85 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Johan Oviedo 132 111 69 128 105 18 131 24
SFG   127 109 108 109 3 109 10
Alex Wood 98 92 106 87 102 16 81 6
STL   87 96 87 88 26 88 23

We took the loss with the Giants yesterday, but we’re going right back to them here. Johan Oviedo is a much juicier match-up than the Giants had yesterday and I expect the offense to show out against him early. He has a 5.14 ERA/5.29 FIP on the season and is going against a very tough offense.

Alex Wood goes for the Giants and he has been much better at home this season. He has a 3.89 ERA/3.88 FIP on the season.

Pick: Bet Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.78 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -1.25 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Patrick Corbin 124 152 78 85 98 14 116 20
SDP   102 96 109 102 10 125 2
Chris Paddack 88 107 102 61 95 11 103 17
WSN   94 101 89 98 15 120 5

Both of these offenses have been red hot of late, but each struggles against pitchers of this handedness. The Padres have a 96 wRC+ against lefties while the Nationals have a 95 wRC+ against righties.

So it’s going to come down to the pitchers and Chris Paddack looks like the pick here. He is sporting a 4.56 ERA/3.59 FIP so he’s due for some regression. Plus, he’s at home where he has been much better this season.

Patrick Corbin has a 5.56 ERA/5.16 FIP on the season and his road stats are even uglier. He can be hit for homeruns and the Padres are more than capable of hitting them.

Pick: Bet Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.15 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/07 1:35:23 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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