July 9th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Five MLB System picks for July 9th, 2021.

MLB Betting Tips

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
JT Brubaker 113 149 97 57 94 8 74 3
NYM   83 107 92 92 17 91 20
Taijuan Walker 75 55 108 89 94 8 102 16
PIT   67 98 89 82 29 85 26

Taijuan Walker has been excellent this season, especially at home. He has a 2.44 ERA/3.07 FIP on the season and faces on of the bottom offenses in baseball against right handers. Walker has done a good job not allowing homeruns this season and the Pirates as an offense hit almost none. A great match-up for him.

The Mets offense always gives me worry, but Brubaker has some awful road numbers on the season. He has a 4.70 ERA/5.24 FIP in his away starts.

Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Vince Velasquez 116 134 105 133 109 25 122 22
BOS   108 99 86 104 8 107 14
Garrett Richards 115 90 73 120 94 8 87 7
PHI   94 110 95 93 16 98 18

This pick ius all about the Red Sox offense going against Vince Velasquez and the Phillies bullpen. Velasquez has always struggled giving up homeruns and he has a 4.41 ERA/6.17 FIP on the road this season. He could go out early after giving up some runs and then give way to one of the worst bullpens in the league.

Garret Richards is not a great pitcher, but the Phillies have just an 88 wRC+ against righties on the season and the Red Sox bullpen is more trustworthy.

Pick: Bet Red Sox Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Cole Irvin 91 70 73 51 105 18 157 30
TEX   100 104 91 89 24 108 11
Jordan Lyles 121 133 78 84 99 15 101 12
OAK   104 98 107 102 10 81 29

Irvin has lower strikeout numbers than I like, but he’s done great in keeping walks and homeruns down. He has a 3.56 ERA/3.73 FIP on the season and I expect him to do well today. The Rangers are a below average offense with just a 93 wRC+ against lefties.

The big thing here is the Athletics offense against Jordan Lyles. He has a 4.98 ERA/5.07 FIP and is very hittable. The Athletics have a 103 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Pick: Bet Athletics -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Wade Miley 76 53 82 69 112 27 90 8
MIL   101 113 107 90 21 123 3
Eric Lauer 120 155 99 102 105 18 95 11
CIN   111 100 96 103 9 106 15

Wade Miley has continued to shine for the Reds and I like him to do well here today. He’s another guy that does a tremendous job of limiting walks and homeruns. The Brewers are a high strikeout team as well which should give him a boost.

Eric Lauer goes for the Brewers and I am not a fan. A huge homerun rate and a 4.11 ERA/4.92 FIP on the season. The Reds offense hasn’t been great against lefties, but they have a lot of power that they should be able to flex here.

Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: -115 at
USA: Best Odds: 1.86 at
Everyone Else: Best Odds: at
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Alex Cobb 61 35 115 81 106 21 101 12
SEA   105 112 98 91 20 108 11
Marco Gonzales 142 181 87 102 87 3 80 5
LAA   117 98 86 107 6 108 11

Marco Gonzales is not as bad as he has played this season, but this is a tough match-up no matter how you slice it. His walks and homeruns are way up over his past couple of seasons and he’s just not right. He has a 5.82 ERA/5.98 FIP on the season. The Angels are one of the tp offenses in baseball against lefties and they hit a lot of homeruns. This could be bad for him.

I really don’t understand Alex Cobb’s season, but his numbers are excellent. A 4.60 ERA/2.58 FIP with a huge strikeout rate, low walk rate, and extremely low homerun rate. He’s been outstanding and I see no reason not to back him against this Mariners offense that has just a 91 wRC+ on the season against righties.

Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -121 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.82 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/09 12:54:42 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Leave a Comment