June 11th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

MLB System picks for June 11th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Blake Snell 98 115 137 147 94 10 124 28
NYM   79 103 95 94 17 139 2
Jacob deGrom 25 40 188 43 80 1 90 8
SDP   92 94 112 96 15 79 28

Jacob deGrom has simply been amazing this season and it’s really hard to go against him right now. That has been easy in the past because of the way that the Mets offense often lets him down, but they are really heating up of late and I like this match-up for them.

Snell has been solid of late, but he has had a much harder time on the road this season. With the way that deGrom has been pitching, all it takes is one run and I think they can get that.

Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.53 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -130 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.54 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/11 1:08:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Keegan Akin 77 75 90 55 96 12 101 17
TBR   108 114 117 103 12 91 21
Ryan Yarbrough 109 114 80 50 96 12 78 5
BAL   90 97 89 99 14 129 4

Keegan Akin has been excellent this season with a 3.60 ERA/3.25 FIP. He does a good job of keeping his walks down and doesn’t give up too many homeruns. The Rays often is below average against lefties on the season and is somewhat cold of late.

The Orioles offense has been very good against lefties on the season with a 118 wRC+ against southpaws. Yarbrough is a solid pitcher, but this is a very difficult match-up and I think the Orioles are a good value here.

Pick: Bet Orioles Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 2.51 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +156 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.55 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/11 1:08:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lucas Giolito 100 140 126 96 82 2 61 1
DET   79 117 96 85 28 108 11
Tarik Skubal 128 181 118 124 119 30 108 22
CHW   87 100 119 113 2 107 12

There have been some solid starts for Skubal of late, but this is an extremely tough match-up for him and I don’t see it going well. The White Sox have a 131 wRC+ against lefties on the season and are one of the more dangerous offenses in the league.

Chicago sends Lucas Giolito to the mound and he matches up really well here. He has a big strikeout rate and the Tigers strikeout a ton. They have just an 89 WRC+ against righties on the season.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/11 1:08:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Chase De Jong 147 234 96 77 95 11 103 20
MIL   97 115 102 86 26 112 8
Brandon Woodruff 53 41 134 66 110 22 74 4
PIT   62 99 88 82 29 82 26

Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball going against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. He’s an easy pick to succeed here.

The Brewers offense hasn’t been much better against righties on the season, but there is a big difference between facing Woodruff and facing Chase De Jong. Milwaukee has also been hitting the ball much better of late and there’s no reason to think they won’t have success here.

Pick: Bet Brewers -1.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.73 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
USA: Best Odds: -135 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/11 1:08:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Jose Urquidy 99 109 89 52 114 27 122 27
MIN   120 98 102 105 7 113 6
Matt Shoemaker 146 163 60 103 113 25 98 14
HOU   100 76 104 119 1 140 1

This pick is all about the Astros offense going against Matt Shoemaker who has a 7.28 ERA/5.99 FIP with bad walk and strikeout rates. He is the textbook definition of a pitcher that is good to bet against. The Astros offense has a 112 wRC+ on the season and should have success here.

Pick: Bet Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/06/11 1:08:13 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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