March 8th, 2023 NBA Betting Tips



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2-1 last night on Patreon with a painful half-point loss on Draymond Green.

If you had told me ahead of the game that he would finish with 11 points and 11 assists, I would have bet the house on the over 23.5. That’s just how it goes sometimes.

A big night in the NBA with seven bets.

Quick note for you baseball fans: I did some work on the MLB System to get ready for Opening Day. I imported all the projection stats to get us ready for the early season and we are ready to roll.

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Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards Betting Tips:

These two teams are in a battle for placement in the play-in tournament so there should be some motivation here. The player I’m looking to show up tonight is Kristaps Porzingis. The Hawks are one of the worst teams against opposing centers, ranking fourth in points allowed. Porzingis has gone over 24 points in three of his past four and five of his past eight.

On the Hawks side, I am liking the points prop for Dejounte Murray. He’s posted 23+ in three of his past five games. The Wizards are better defensively against point guards so I expect them to put a greater focus on shutting down Young which should let Murray shine.

Kristaps Porzingis Over 23.5 Points
Dejounte Murray Over 19.5 Points

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat Betting Tips:

The Cavs are a great defensive team, but the small forward position is definitely a weak spot. The Heat are in the play-in right now, but they are still in a good position to move up in the standings if they get it together.

For the Heat, getting it together basically means Jimmy Butler plays and goes hard. He’s been doing it a lot more of late, averaging 22.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.1 assists in 10 games. He’s scored 22+ in seven of his past ten games and his number here is set at 21.5. He’s gone for 23 and 24 in his last two games against the Cavs.

Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets Betting Tips:

The Nuggets should roll here, but Zach LaVine has put up some really big numbers of late. He’s averaging 29.4 points in his last nine games with 26+ in seven of his last nine games. The Bulls are a mess, but they are still in the race for the play-in tournament. There are not a lot of other offensive options so I think he continues to put up points here.

Zach LaVine Over 25.5 Points

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns Betting Tips:

Devin Booker has played three games with Kevin Durant and he’s scored 35+ in all of them. While I don’t think he’ll score quite that many tonight, it would not surprise me either. The Thunder should be competitive enough here that he’ll be needed for a full load of minutes and he’s on fire right now.

Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers Betting Tips:

The Clips can be a pretty frustrating team, but when Kawhi and PG are playing and engaged – they put up numbers. The West playoff race is a complete logjam and every game matters for the teams ranked 5-13.

We’ve seen some big numbers out of the stars of late. Kawhi has scored 33+ in three of his past five games. PG is averaging 27.2/7.2/4.7 over his last six games.

My system likes Paul George slightly better, but both look like good bets here. They can each hits this total with points alone while each should add another 10 in rebounds/assists.

Kawhi Leonard Over 36.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Paul George Over 34.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists