May 13th, 2020 Betting Tips: AEW, NXT

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A 1-1 record on Monday.

No tips yesterday, but we are back with tips for the Wednesday Night Wars. Tonight is a unique one as we not only have AEW and NXT, but also a live UFC event on ESPN. It should be a very interesting night in the ratings war as we can really see how much of a crossover audience there is between the three leagues. 888 (Americans try BetOnline) has odds on the AEW/NXT ratings and you have to think that UFC is going to hurt those ratings some.

Last week, AEW had 732k viewers and NXT had 663k. The over/under for this week is AEW 700k viewers and NXT 635k viewers. Apparently, 888 thinks that UFC is going to skim 60k viewers off of both shows. The UFC prelims this past Saturday did 1.154 million viewers and they reportedly did 700k buys on pay-per-view.

I just can’t see making a play on either of those. An under for NXT would be their lowest rating ever. If that was around 650k, I could see doing it. I just can’t go with the over though as this show is trending down. With AEW, it’s hard to judge because of the global pandemic, but they have been under 700k in three of their past five weeks. Their audience has shown that they will often leave the show to watch bigger events. Does this UFC qualify? Hard to say, but I am not going to bet on it.

I do have a couple of bets for tonight’s shows though and one ratings bet. Let’s get into it.

Notable Upcoming Bets:

Event: Type of Bet: Props: Where To Bet:
MLB Adjusted Run Lines Yes
WWE Futures Champions End of 2021 Yes
Popcorn Eating World Championship Yes BetOnline
Logan Paul vs Floyd Mayweather Tons of unique props Yes BetOnline

AEW Betting Tips:

Five matches on the card tonight with odds:

  • Chris Jericho (-700) vs. Pineapple Pete (+400)
  • Matt Hardy & Kenny Omega (-400) vs. Santana & Ortiz (+250)
  • Brodie Lee (-3335) vs. Christopher Daniels (+800)
  • Jurassic Express (-500) vs. Best Friends (+300)
  • Hikaru Shida (-278) vs. Britt Baker M.D. (+275) vs. Kris Statlander (+700) vs. Penelope Ford (+700)

Jurassic Express vs. Best Friends: This is the only match I am seeing any real value on tonight. The Best Friends were present during the quarantine run of taped shows and they really got a good push during that time. They are climbing up the rankings while Jurassic Express goes into this one cold. Plus, these two teams faced off in a trios match awhile back and AEW has done a good job of keeping things even on rematches. I think Best Friends are the Best Value of the day.

Bet Best Friends +300 at 888 (Americans try BetOnline)

I’d like to put a bet on the women’s match, but this entire division has no momentum right now. A lot of that has to do with the pandemic, but I’d equally blame Tony Khan’s seeming lack of interest in women’s wrestling.

NXT Betting Tips:

Two matches on the card tonight with odds:

  • Matt Riddle & Timothy Thatcher (-455) vs. Fabian Archer & Marcel Barthel (+280)
  • Finn Balor (-1430) vs. Cameron Grimes (+600)

Riddle & Thatcher vs. Archer & Barthel: I don’t think it’s going to happen, but there is a chance of a turn here. I think Thatcher’s ultimate destiny in NXT is to wrestle against Riddle, not with him. That said, it’s not worth a bet on Imperium. However, there is a prop here that I like. You can bet on which participant of the team will be involved in the finish and I think Riddle is the play. If he gets turned on, that’s him. If they win, I think it’s good enough odds that he wins. Worth a small bet.

Bet Riddle to be involved in finish +140 at 888 (Americans try BetOnline)

Wednesday Night Wars Ratings Betting Tips:

888 (Americans try BetOnline) has this spread – AEW (TNT): 0.075 million more than NXT (USA Network).

With UFC taking a big chunk of viewers, I think it’s going to be a close one. AEW hasn’t won by this much since 4/1 and there is a solid chance that UFC takes a bigger chunk of AEW’s core than NXT. The old people who watch NXT tend to stay there.

Bet No/Closer than 0.075 million viewers at 888 (Americans try BetOnline)