May 27th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System picks for May 27th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Bruce Zimmermann 6.03 179 73 98 99 15 99 16
CHW   85 96 120 112 2 107 12
Dylan Cease 3.26 49 123 156 86 2 94 11
BAL   87 97 92 92 19 111 10

Bruce Zimmermann looks like a pitcher who has a bright future, but that future isn’t now. He’s had some rough starts to begin his career and it won’t get any better against the White Sox. They hit lefties hard and Zimmermann has been hit hard with a 2.09 HR/9 rate on the season.

Dylan Cease has been great to start the season with a 3.18 ERA/3.24 FIP and a big 11.12 K/9 rate. The Orioles offense has been far worse against right handed pitching this season with just an 83 wRC+.

This is the system’s favorite game of the day. It’s one of those situations where you just have to find the best way to bet it. I’d like to do the five inning here, but it’s a bit too expensive. The best way to go is laying the runs for the full game.

Pick: Bet White Sox -1.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/27 12:31:02 PM EST but are subject to change.)

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Carlos Martinez 4.35 47 51 93 98 14 100 18
ARI   92 103 95 91 20 60 30
Matt Peacock 4.54 109 71 124 119 28 111 20
STL 104 98 88 94 18 93 19

These two offense are about even on paper, but the last two weeks tell a much different story. Over the past two weeks, the Diamondbacks have just a 60 wRC+ as they are hitting just .208/.266/.317 in that span. Carlos Martinez has had some rough starts to begin the season, but he’s simply not that bad. I think he can improve his stats across the board here.

Matt Peacock goes for the Diamondbacks. He has a 4.91 ERA/4.54 FIP on the season. He’s a big pitch to contact guy with a low strikeout rate. The Cardinals offense has power and I think they can hit him.

Pick: Bet Cardinals Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -106 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/27 12:31:02 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners ​Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Kolby Allard 3.13 118 89 114 95 11 95 12
SEA   96 110 103 84 25 79 25
Chris Flexen 4.31 92 59 65 94 10 85 6
TEX   103 109 96 96 17 85 22

This is a weird one because the system definitely likes the under, but neither starter is what I’d call lights out. They both have blowup potential which worries me a bit, but both offenses are below average and underperforming of late. While both bullpens have been above average.

It will be close, but the under is a good bet here. Don’t touch it any lower and I would prefer if ywe could get it at 9.

Pick: Bet Rangers/Mariners Under 8.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.96 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/27 12:31:02 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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