May 28th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

MLB System picks for May 28th, 2021.

A 2-0 record last night. 31-22 for the month.

Our third tip, the Cardinals moneyline, was cancelled when Matt Peacock ended up not starting for the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals ended up winning the game so if you didn’t pay attention to the starters, good for you.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Brett Anderson 5.57 153 59 81 115 25 122 27
WSN   93 96 85 99 14 121 6
Jon Lester 4.94 118 71 116 104 19 93 8
MIL   94 115 98 81 28 75 27

Brett Anderson is the type of pitcher that I love targeting. He has a low strikeout rate, high talks, and gives up homeruns. He has just a 4.34 ERA/5.57 FIP on the season and he can be hit. The Nationals offense has been very good against lefties this season with a 113 wRC+. The bullpen behind him has really been struggling of late as well.

Jon Lester is not a pitcher I fully trust, but the Brewers offense has just been so bad lately. I was looking at their lineup and there are only three players hitting over .250. Just terrible.

Pick: Bet Nationals Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -120 at Bovada – $750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/28 12:29:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Hyun-Jin Ryu 2.97 83 97 33 102 17 111 20
CLE   107 98 98 84 25 87 20
Eli Morgan 5.27
(Projection)
138 84 112 92 8 83 5
TOR   122 94 89 107 6 134 2

Eli Morgan is making his MLB debut here and I don’t see that going very well for him. He has a 3.95 ERA/5.15 FIP in three starts in the minors this season with a huge walk rate. The Jays offense has some big boppers and they are hitting the ball very well of late. I just can’t see this going well for Morgan.

Ryu has a 2.53 ERA/2.97 FIP and is a pretty consistent starter. The Indians offense has been below average against lefties on the season with just an 85 wRC+.

Pick: Bet Blue Jays First 5 Innings -0.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/28 12:29:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Anthony DeSclafani 3.55 79 91 84 118 26 113 22
LAD   102 100 122 112 2 106 14
Walker Buehler 3.34 102 101 40 101 16 93 8
SFG   118 113 112 102 12 107 12

The system takes parks into account when calculating a score and Dodger Stadium is always on the low end. Even so, the system likes the over here.

Both pitchers are solid, but this is mostly about the offenses. They are both hitting well of late with the Giants having a 107 wRC+ over the past two weeks and the Dodgers at 106. The Dodgers offense is one of the best in the league and I doubt Anthony DeSclafani is scaring them.

Eight runs is basically the baseline these days. I think this game can hit that.

Pick: Bet Dodgers/Giants Over 7.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.96 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/05/28 12:29:08 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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