May 3rd, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

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An extremely unlucky 1-3 last night.

The Mariners game last night has to be our most frustrating loss of the year. James Paxton had 7 innings of shutout ball and 16 strikeouts. The Mariners had a 2-0 lead heading into the 8th and a 87% chance at victory. I’d have liked more runs, but I still felt good about this. Then the bullpen happened. Juan Nicasio allowed a homerun to tie the game (breaking a 7 game scoreless streak) and Edwin Diaz (1.10 ERA) allowed a homerun to lose it. First time we’ve been really screwed by a bullpen this year.

The Diamondbacks/Dodgers game was also frustrating. I make my picks based on what I expect from the starters. Hyun-Jin Ryu left the game in the second after just four outs with an injury. This made for a bullpen game for the Dodgers where they were able to effectively shut down the Diamondbacks by using most of their best relievers. The D-Backs definitely had chances, but this is just not the game they or I thought would be played.

The winds at Wrigley killed our under in the Rockies/Cubs game and we barely held on in Boston for the under. Tough day.

Shaking this one off. Not the start to May that I had envisioned, but we’ve had some bad luck and weird games. These things even out.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

I tried to fight the weather yesterday in the early games, but not going to do that today. This game should be very hot and the winds are blowing out 15mph to dead center. This is a hitter’s game and the pitchers on the mound should add to that.

Jeremy Hellickson is a flyball pitcher with a 4.11 ERA/4.46 FIP on the season. He’s allowed 1.29 HR/9 for his career and there is a good chance of a ball leaving the park here today.

Trevor Williams has pitched well for the Pirates this season with a 2.29 ERA/3.67 FIP, but his underlying stats show that he should be hit a bit harder going forward. He has a 5.04 xFIP and he has a high left on base percentage and low batting average on balls in play. Those things will come around and today seems like a good day for it.

Bet Over 9.5 Runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

We saw what the Indians offense is capable of in a big rout yesterday where Edwin Encarnacion hit three homeruns. More of that here please. Jaime Garcia hasn’t had the best start to his Jays career with a 5.40 ERA/6.04 FIP/4.29 xFIP. He’s walking four batters per game and has allowed one homerun in each start this year with seven total bombs given up. I love this Indians offense today.

I also like Carlos Carrasco to bounceback in this one. He’s been hit in two starts this year and both were against the Mariners. In his other four starts he’s allowed four runs in 29 1/3 innings. I like him against the Jays today and feel comfortable laying the runs.

Bet Indians -1.5 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]