October 11th, 2021 MLB ALDS/NLDS Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for four MLB playoff games.

A 1-1 record yesterday. If you didn’t see those tips, make sure you sign up for our daily emails on the right side of this page.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Freddy Peralta 70 71 144 109 88 5 105 21
ATL   121 108 99 98 12 100 14
Ian Anderson 91 91 100 112 101 16 93 9
MIL   98 108 105 91 23 98 16

You know the story here.

The Brewers have a very good starter going, but it is hard to trust their offense. Peralta had a 2.81 ERA/3.12 FIP during the regular season with a big strikeout rate. This Braves team strikes out a lot so this should once again be a good match-up for Milwaukee. They just have to hit the ball.

If they are going to get hits in this series it will be against Ian Anderson. He has a 3.58 ERA/4.12 FIP on the season and none of his numbers impress me all that much. He’s really struggled with the walk this year which the Brewers are actually good at and they could use all the help they can get there.

Pick: Bet Brewers First 5 Innings Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.92 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.92 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/11 11:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Jose Urquidy 97 104 95 53 84 3 95 12
CHW   96 100 114 109 3 109 6
Carlos Rodon 61 69 150 79 90 7 82 2
HOU   112 85 107 116 1 116 3

Don’t get too married to this one as it looks like a very good chance of rain causing problems.

Carlos Rodon gives the White Sox a chance to even the series today and they couldn’t ask for a better pitcher. He had a 2.37 ERA/2.65 FIP on the season while barely allowing any homeruns or walks. He faced the Astros twice this season, going 14 innings and only allowing one run.

Jose Urquidy definitely gives the White Sox a chance. Not a bad pitcher by any means, but not a great one either with a 3.62 ERA/4.14 during the regular season. The White Sox really put a hurt on this bullpen yesterday so we have to see if that carries over today.

Today is filled with close games, but the White Sox are the System’s favorite.

Pick: Bet White Sox Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.8 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -125 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.8 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/11 11:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Collin McHugh 52 33 130 58 86 4 89 6
BOS   111 99 99 107 6 112 4
Eduardo Rodriguez 71 88 119 80 84 2 101 18
TBR   112 108 111 109 3 120 1

This is another straight up bullpen game for the Rays. Collin McHugh has good stats, but he almost never pitches more than two innings.

Eduardo Rodriguez had a weird season with a 4.74 ERA/3.32 FIP. He made four starts against the Rays this year and his last was one of his worst of the year with six earned runs.

The System likes the Red Sox here, but it doesn’t quite hit the threshold where I want to bet on them. Instead, I’m going under.

The total here is set at 9.5 and that feels like a bit of an overcorrection by the sportsbooks. Even using the regular System’s rules, that number is high. The weather will be on our side here with temps in the 60s (Fahrenheit) which should keep the ball down a bit.

Pick: Bet Red Sox/Rays Under 9.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.81 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -123 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/11 11:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Alex Wood 74 74 112 75 93 9 85 3
LAD   120 101 107 106 7 105 9
Max Scherzer 70 94 146 59 81 1 89 6
SFG   122 106 106 108 5 109 6

This line is just baffling to me. The System sees this game as being very close, but the Dodgers are almost a -200 favorite. What am I missing?

I know that Alex Wood isn’t as good as Scherzer, but his numbers are not that dissimilar through five innings. A 74 FIP- with low walk and homerun rates, and a solid strikeout rate. It’s after the fifth where he gets into trouble and I don’t see him getting that far. The Dodgers only had a 104 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Good, not great.

Scherzer is better, of course, with an astronomical strikeout rate and almost never walking anyone. He is prone to homeruns though and the Giants are very powerful with a 122 HR rate.

The bullpens are close enough where the Dodgers should be favored, but it is not a certainty by any means.

Taking the runs here as I think there is enough of a chance that the Giants win. They will at least keep it close.

Pick: Bet Giants +1.5

Canada: Best Odds: 1.82 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.82 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/11 11:33:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

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