October 12th, 2021 MLB NLDS/ALDS Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for tonight’s three games.

A 1-2 record last night.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lance McCullers Jr. 81 56 117 131 84 3 95 12
CHW   96 100 114 109 3 109 6
Carlos Rodon 65 69 150 79 90 7 82 2
HOU   112 85 107 116 1 116 3

The margins on this series have just been razor thin. These two teams match-up really well and they both have outstanding offenses. The line here is basically a coin flip.

The Astros used the day off to upgrade their starter to Lance McCullers Jr. He had a 3.16 ERA/3.52 FIP on the season, but he has a huge walk rate which could lead to trouble against this White Sox offense. He had a great start in game one of this series with no runs allowed in 6.2 innings.

As I said yesterday, Carlos Rodon gives the White Sox a chance to even the series today. He had a 2.37 ERA/2.65 FIP on the season while barely allowing any homeruns or walks. He faced the Astros twice this season, going 14 innings and only allowing one run.

This one could be close, but I like the White Sox in the first five innings. The starter match-up is slightly in their favor and they should be able to hit McCullers this time around.

Pick: Bet White Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline

Canada: Best Odds: 1.95 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Eric Lauer 93 90 105 94 88 5 105 21
ATL   121 108 99 98 12 100 14
Charlie Morton 75 63 123 86 101 16 93 9
MIL   98 108 105 91 23 98 16

The Brewers offense just stinks. If I had to do it all over again, I would bet under on every one of the games in this series. Yesterday’s loss was the first time I was legit pissed off at a result in some time.

This team wins by having great starters and then hoping the offense gets a couple runs. So, what do they do? Pinch hit for their great starter in the fourth inning when he’s thrown only 57 pitches. I know that was probably their best chance to score because the offense is so bad, but I knew that the bet was a loss the second that they didn’t score. A three-run homerun a few minutes later proved it.

Anyway, F(orget) the Brewers. They had their chance in this series and now it’s over. They put an average lefty on the mound today in Eric Lauer who I think they can hit. Charlie Morton should shut them down.

Pick: Bet Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings

Canada: Best Odds: 1.87 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: -115 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at Bet365 – $200 in Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Anthony DeSclafani 87 83 96 70 93 9 85 3
LAD   120 101 107 106 7 105 9
Walker Buehler 75 67 112 72 81 1 89 6
SFG   122 106 106 108 5 109 6

I have been burned on unders a few times in these playoffs, but I’m going back to that well for the first five innings here.

The Dodgers have been shutout twice in this series and scored nine runs once. Seven of those runs came after the fifth inning. If you throw in the Wild Card game, they have scored three runs total in four games in the first five innings of those games. DeSclafani is solid and the Giants have a quick hook when necessary.

Throw in Walker Buehler who had a 2.47 ERA/3.15 FIP on the season and I think this is likely to be another tight, low scoring game between these two teams.

Pick: Bet Dodgers/Giants First 5 Innings Under 4 Runs

USA: Best Odds: -105 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/12 12:42:58 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

We now accept CashApp: $vintown21 and Venmo: @vintown

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