October 23rd, 2023 MLB Playoff Bets

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MLB Playoff bets for October 23rd, 2022.

3-1 last night on Patreon.

W Rangers First 5 Innings Over 1.5
W Rangers/Astros Over 8.5 Runs
W Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases from Hits
L Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Eovaldi lands right at four strikeouts, but an otherwise perfect night as the Rangers force game seven.

Today is the last two-game slate of the MLB season. To celebrate the end of a long season, today’s Patreon post is free below. I will be covering the World Series exclusively on Patreon.

All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

ARI – Merrill Kelly
PHI – Aaron Nola

The Phillies are a big favorite tonight and I think they absolutely deserve to be. Nola has been an absolute ace in the playoffs while the Phillies hit Kelly well in game two. That was the 10-0 Phillies win where it looked like this team would just roll to the World Series. I’m not sure I quite see that kind of game again, but I do think the Phillies are going to clinch tonight.

The Phillies have the top bullpen of the playoffs, the top starter of the playoffs, and the top offense of the playoffs. Yeah, they’re pretty good.

This isn’t a great value or anything. I just think it’s a lock.

Phillies Moneyline (-166)
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Diamondbacks/Phillies Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:

Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Total Bases from Hits (-130): What a weird line. He was 2/3 with two homers in game two, both of them off of Kelly. He has a 169 wRC+ in the playoffs.

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132): Nola had seven strikeouts in game two and another 9 against the Braves in that series. Including the playoffs, he’s had 6+ in five of his last seven starts.

As a team, the Diamondbacks have 9+ strikeouts in five of the six games in this series, and eight out of ten playoff games.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

TEX – Max Scherzer
HOU – Cristian Javier

The Rangers season comes down to Max Scherzer. That’s why they traded for him and now they are here. Of course, I don’t think they thought he would miss a ton of time with injury and look like this when they made the trade, but here we are.

I’ve been trying to dig into Scherzer’s game one to see if the old hero is in there somewhere. His velocity was right where you expect it to be, but pretty much everything went wrong. His hard contact was way up with most of his batted balls being 100+ MPH in exit velocity. I did notice his spin rate seemed to be down, a possible sign of rust.

Making matters worse, Scherzer has a career .355 wOBA and .289 batting average against when facing this current Astros roster. Not only is he rusty, but this team has hit him well.

Javier has been great in the playoffs. He’s not great and I think the Rangers can score off of him, but he’s gotten results. Javier has a 1.69 ERA/4.19 FIP in the playoffs this year. In the regular season that might be a red flag. In the playoffs, the ERA plays.

After last night, the Rangers bullpen has now performed better overall than the Astros in this series. That said, I don’t trust them here. If Scherzer has anything close to a start like he had last time out, he’s gone before five and that is a lot to ask from this Rangers team.

The Astros should be returning to the World Series with a win tonight.

Astros Moneyline (-122)
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Rangers/Astros Player Props Bet at 0.25 Units:

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases from Hits (+120): Yes, I’m betting Yordan again. Like Freddie Mercury said, don’t stop me now cause I’m having a good time.

Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 Runs+RBIs (-110): He saw the ball better than anyone against Scherzer in that last start with two extremely hard hit singles. He’ll also likely be batting ahead of the big man which puts him in good position to score.